Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- We look for a below-consensus drop in May retail sales of about 1%, driven by autos and other durables.
- Spending elsewhere seems to be holding up relatively well for now, but that will change as prices start to rise.
- Real incomes likely will stagnate in Q3; households no longer have the means to fuel strong spending growth.
- A stronger BRL and improved food supply helped ease headline inflation pressures in Brazil in May.
- Services and regulated prices continue to drive core inflation above the BCB’s 3% target.
- The BCB will hold rates, but fiscal risk and global uncertainty threaten to derail the recent price stability.
- Malaysian retail sales moderated in April; we are worried about its failure to reach pre-Covid levels.
- Debt is high, but this shouldn’t risk the outlook for long-term sales, as most of it is secured borrowing.
- Indonesian sales faltered in April; the mini-stimulus won’t help, especially with confidence tanking.
- China’s May steady broad credit growth was based mainly on strong government bond issuance, again.
- Private sector credit demand still dull; the M1 uptick isn’t meaningful and will probably reverse in June.
- The financial system is absorbing rapid government bond issuance with no sign of strain; PBoC has tools.
- EZ industrial production fell in April, as goods exports retreated.
- The increase in tariff rates in April hurt exports, but the main hit came from fading tariff front-running.
- The risks to our calls for net trade and GDP in Q2 are to the downside.
- The MPC will be in a pickle if oil prices rise another 5-to-10%, as inflation would peak close to 4%.
- Payrolls and GDP exaggerate weakness; we expect rebounds in June and May, respectively.
- We look for 3.4% CPI inflation in May and little change to the MPC’s “gradual and careful” guidance.
Still waiting for the tariffs to hit.
Tariff pressures remain muted, for now.
- In one line: No signs yet of food disinflation stabilising.
- CPI and PPI data imply a 0.12% rise in the May core PCE deflator, but 0.3-to-0.4% prints lie straight ahead.
- Momentum in services prices will rebuild in June and July, while retailers will start to pass on tariff costs.
- Jobless claims provide further evidence that the labor market is gradually softening.
- China faces a long-term demographic headwind, as its workforce declines and population ages...
- ...but also an opportunity to shift 20% of the workforce into jobs with productivity three times higher.
- Growth potential will still be substantial after the structural adjustment; plus AI is a wild card.
- Indian inflation dropped to its lowest level in over six years in May, coming in below expectations at 2.8%.
- Food disinflation is still the overriding story, and our daily tracker points to outright deflation here soon.
- We’ve cut our 2025 forecast to 2.8%, but raised our 2026 call to 5.0%, with this year’s base so low.
- Post-meeting comments from ECB Council members are mixed, but do not rule out another cut.
- Markets, like us, look for one more rate cut—in September—but it will be a close call.
- The ECB’s wage tracker eased in Q1, in line with other measures; wage growth will remain high.
- The unwinding of tariff and tax-hike front-running dragged down GDP growth in April…
- …But the monthly fall looks exaggerated to us, so we expect GDP to rebound in May.
- We thus only shave our forecast for Q2 GDP growth, to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter, from 0.3% previously.
- In one line: A dovish release that raises the chance of the MPC easing policy again in August.
- In one line: BRC retail sales growth stronger than the headline suggests, consumer spending will remain robust.
Sentiment up from the April lows, but small businesses remain under pressure.
In one line: A one-year high.
- Changes in import prices rarely feed through instantly to consumer prices; brace for a surge this summer.
- CPI services data remain plagued by residual seasonality; expect much faster increases ahead.
- We still expect core CPI inflation to peak at 3½% in Q4, though that won’t stop the Fed easing.
