Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- The BoT yesterday left the policy rate steady after two consecutive cuts, in line with our expectation.
- The MPC’s worst fears at the April meeting have been averted, leading to an upgrade to its GDP call.
- We maintain that 1.75% is the terminal rate, though the risks are still clearly skewed to the downside.
- Falling oil prices and a strong euro are playing into the hands of ECB doves, for now.
- Services inflation is a key upside risk in the June HICP, but we still see core inflation at 2% by August.
- Fiscal details and a US-EU trade deal could swing the September meeting in favour of ECB hawks.
- Official payroll data are vastly exaggerating the weakness in the job market, in our view.
- May’s payrolls reading is especially unreliable, while the official data have diverged hugely from surveys.
- Job vacancies seem to be stabilising, redundancies are low and jobless claims are down since October.
In one line: At a one-year high, but still consistent with slower growth.
- US - Consumption looks vulnerable to the looming real-income shock
- EUROZONE - SNB shies away from negative rates for now; EZ PMI holds steady
- UK - Week in review: an August cut to Bank Rate looking more likely
- CHINA+ - Japanese auto exports bear the brunt of US tariff hikes
- EM ASIA - BSP, rightly unfazed by oil prices, leaves door open to two more cuts
- LATAM - COPOM surprises with a final hike and signals a prolonged pause
- Homebase data point to a mere 100K rise in June payrolls; Conference Board data point to even worse.
- No other reliable indicators of payroll growth are due to be released, so we likely will maintain our 100K forecast.
- The April surge in new home sales looks very fishy: we expect a slump in May.
- The benign inflation report supports a 50bp cut, but a divided Banxico will likely slow the easing pace in H2.
- Services inflation is sticky; housing, wage and food costs are delaying disinflation despite a MXN rebound.
- Private demand and capex lead growth in Argentina, but external imbalances and fiscal risks remain high.
- Taiwan’s retail sales fell for a second straight month, because of a slump in vehicle sales...
- ...Reports suggest consumers are holding off purchases, hoping for a reduction in import tariffs.
- Malaysian inflation fell to its lowest in 51 months, due to a decline in services inflation.
- Japan’s June headline flash manufacturing index was lifted by output, but demand remained subdued.
- Cost pressures are easing only slowly, with global oil prices a key risk.
- The service sector continues to be bolstered by tourism, notably surging Chinese visitor numbers.
- German business surveys are on the rise, but the hard data are not; at least, not yet…
- ...The cabinet approved the 2025 supplementary budget; parliament must do likewise by September.
- The rise in public spending and capex will feed through only in Q4 or, more likely, from 2026.
- Collapsing payrolls in May look inconsistent with stable or improving survey-based measures of jobs.
- The soft data suggest the worst of the slowdown caused by the payroll-tax hike is behind us.
- Stable economic growth, driven by less trade-related uncertainty, will give a hawkish tint to the job data.
- In one line: House prices fall in April, but the market will recover quickly.
- In one line: ONS vehicle duty correction cuts inflation, news was small, inflation pressures remain sticky.
- In one line:Public finances deteriorate in May, tax-hike speculation to mount over the summer.
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence inches up, but it will be tested over the summer.
Sales likely to continue to stagnate.
- In one line: Solid start to Q2, but consumption faces headwinds.
- In one line: Solid start to Q2, but consumption faces headwinds.
- In one line: Rates and guidance unchanged in June, but a dovish tilt to the minutes.
- In one line:Retail sales tank in May but will rebound.
