Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

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15 April 2025 UK Monitor Housing demand normalising after the stamp-duty-induced rush

Official house prices rose sharply in January, taking year-over-year house price inflation to a two-year high.
House price inflation will ease to 4.0% year-over-year in December, as higher stamp duty curbs demand.
Better affordability as markets price more rate cuts will be offset by weaker employment.

Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK

China+ Datanote: Money & Credit, China, March

Government bond issuance still taking centre stage, with modest uptick in household loans

Duncan WrigleyChina+

Global Datanote: Inflation IPCA and Economic activity index, Brazil, March/February, 2025

In one line: Rising food prices and FX volatility rekindle inflation risks amid slowing domestic demand.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global

PM Datanote: Inflation IPCA and Economic activity index, Brazil, March/February, 2025

In one line: Rising food prices and FX volatility rekindle inflation risks amid slowing domestic demand.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, February, 2025

In one line: Solid February bounce, but underlying weakness remains

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Germany, March 2025

In one line: Before the tariff shock; what happens next?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

PM Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru, 2025

In one line: On hold amid global uncertainty, but door remains open to cut.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

14 April 2025 US Monitor Consumers are shell-shocked, but spending indicators remain mixed

People are the most downbeat about the outlook for 45 years and are very worried about losing their job.
Timely spending and borrowing data, however, continue to run above levels consistent with recession.
Tariff-related inflation will be milder than people fear; Fed policy easing will shore up sentiment too.

Samuel TombsUS

14 April 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor 'Factory Asia'--ex-China--won't break, even if April 9 tariffs return

Doomsday takes on the future of EM Asia ex-China are overblown, even if the “reciprocal” tariffs return…
…They’d still give the China+1 wave an inadvertent boost; cheap labour won’t disappear overnight.
Taiwan’s exports softened in March but remain in double digits, as apparent front-loading continues.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 April 2025 China+ Monitor Ready for a ceasefire? China to step back from tariff tit-for-tat

China acted as the adult in the room on Friday, saying it will not match any further US tariff hikes.
This is hopefully the escalation off-ramp, paving the way for bilateral talks, probably in several months.
Still, tariffs will likely remain high, hurting exports, worsening excess supply and so prolonging deflation.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

14 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor The ECB will cut by 25bp this week but offer little guidance

The ECB will cut its deposit rate by 25bp this week, in line with the consensus.
Falling oil prices and a strengthening euro point to downside risk to the ECB’s June inflation forecasts.
‘Uncertainty’ will be a key word for Ms. Lagarde this week, but doves have the upper hand, for now.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 April 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: GDP jumps in February but tariffs will hurt growth

GDP growth soared in February as industrial production and services activity rose higher…
…But the ongoing global trade war has made incoming data obsolete.
The MPC will be challenged by a broken trading environment and CPI at 3.5% in H2.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK