Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Inflation eases slightly, but risks persist.
In one line: A fall after improving throughout Q2.
IMay slump brings sales back to reality.
- We look for a below-consensus 0.2% decline in real expenditure in May...
- ...One-time factors likely drove the drop, but the Q3 outlook for real after-tax income growth is bleak.
- 3% GDP growth looks likely in Q2, as the unwinding of tariff distortions obscures underlying weakness.
- Banxico cuts rates, but rising inflation and Board split signal slower, more cautious easing ahead.
- Disinflation is emerging in Brazil, but policy is still tight amid lingering core pressures and fiscal uncertainty…
- …The Selic will likely be held at 15%, as the BCB sees easing risks outweighing fragile disinflation.
- Early national data suggest the fall in EZ consumer confidence in June was focused outside the big two.
- The details indicate that risks to spending in Q2 are still to the downside in France and Germany.
- Indeed figures show slowing wage growth in Italy in May, but a pick-up in France and Spain.
- In one line: Manufacturing orders fall in June but the worst of the tariff-induced slowdown appears over.
In one line: Unchanged at a weak level.
- In one line: Pausing, for now.
- In one line: Pausing, for now.
Inflation expectations dropping back, labor market still weakening.
- In one line: Benign inflation print supports a cautious Banxico rate cut.
In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI rebound on stockpiling activity, but domestic demand softens
In one line: Japan's services business activity grow faster in June, but slowing input cost increase bode ill for wage growth
In one line: China’s current account balance holds up in Q1, but deterioration likely in Q2.
In one line: Japan’s GDP shrinks for the first time in a year, reinforcing the BoJ's wait-and-see stance.
In one line: Korea's 20-day exports rebound in June on front loading ahead of reprieve expiry
In one line: Japan's core inflation surprised on the upside, but unlikely to sway BoJ into hiking mode
- Mr. Powell refrained from providing lawmakers with triggers and timings for the intended policy easing in H2...
- ...But 2024’s small upside unemployment surprise drove a rapid pivot; expect a repeat, despite the tariffs.
- GDPNow’s 3.4% projection for Q2 growth looks about right; underlying momentum is about half that figure.
- The BoT yesterday left the policy rate steady after two consecutive cuts, in line with our expectation.
- The MPC’s worst fears at the April meeting have been averted, leading to an upgrade to its GDP call.
- We maintain that 1.75% is the terminal rate, though the risks are still clearly skewed to the downside.
