Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Banxico cuts again, but rising inflation and a split Board signal a slower, more cautious easing cycle ahead.
In one line: Another fall in inflation expectations.
In one line: IESI averaged less in Q2 than Q1.
In one line: Pointing to upside risks for our Q2 consumption call.
In one line: A slight rebound in inflation and consumers’ spending on course for a better Q2 than Q1
In one line: Tokyo inflation cools, thanks to restart of energy subsidies
Tokyo inflation cools thanks to energy subsidies restart
China's industrial profits hit by slower investment income and weak demand
A bump in the road for the uptrend in real Philippine import demand
- Spending fell by 0.3% in May, with little chance of a June rebound, and further weakness likely in Q3.
- The 0.4% fall in May incomes was due to one-time factors, but real income growth is set to stagnate.
- The core PCE deflator surprised to the upside in May, but the 0.18% rise will pale in comparison to June.
- Banxico cut, but one dissenting vote signals caution as inflation expectations drift further from the target.
- Forward guidance was softer; the Board dropped the reference to steady cuts, indicating a possible pause.
- Weak domestic demand supports disinflation; real rates remain well above neutral.
- We no longer expect the SBV to restart cuts, with the worst-case tariff scenario looking less likely…
- …Plus, credit growth is already soaring and the authorities won’t want to risk rocking the VND further.
- Philippine household savings recovered more substantially in 2024, but the Covid hole remains huge.
- The fall in Tokyo inflation in June was largely due to energy subsidies kicking in again.
- The BoJ will probably stay put on interest rates, given sluggish growth and trade risks...
- ...Assuming oil prices are reasonably well behaved; markets appear sanguine about geopolitical risk.
- French and Spanish headline inflation rose in June, pointing to upside risk to our EZ call.
- We are sticking to our forecast for an increase in the EZ headline to 2.0% from 1.9%.
- That marks a small rise, which need not worry the ECB, especially given stable inflation expectations.
- We cut our Q2 GDP growth forecast to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter from 0.3% previously, after soft data.
- Energy prices nudge up our inflation forecasts; we see CPI inflation peaking at 3.7% in September.
- We see payrolls and GDP rebounding, which keeps us expecting only one more rate cut this year.
THE RBI—RIGHTLY—ISN’T BUYING THIS ‘RECOVERY’
- …CRACKS SHOWING IN THE EXPORT FRONT-LOADING STORY
THE NEXT STEPS FOR THE ECB ARE FINELY BALANCED...
- ...WE STILL SEE A FINAL CUT TO 1.75%, SETTING UP HIKES NEXT YEAR
GDP on course for a misleading jump in Q2.
- In one line: Inflation eases slightly, but risks persist.
In one line: A fall after improving throughout Q2.
IMay slump brings sales back to reality.
