Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Growth momentum is fading in Chile as temporary drivers wane and consumption stabilises.
- Industrial production is still strong, led by mining, but job-market weakness remains a threat.
- Political polarisation and election uncertainty are rising, posing new risks to policy and capex.
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI deteriorated further in June, and all signs point to more near-term falls.
- Indonesian export growth is in for a rockier H2, in spite of evidence of stabilising demand from China.
- Consumer sectors were to blame for India’s poor May IP; that’s a double whammy for the economy.
- The Caixin PMI rebounded more strongly than the official manufacturing index in June…
- …Deflation pressures are festering, however, likely forcing regulatory curbs on excessive competition.
- Korea’s manufacturing PMI is starting to rise from its sickbed, now the election has reduced political risk.
- Headline inflation edged up to the ECB’s 2% target in June, as energy deflation unwound a touch.
- Lower energy and core inflation will pull the rate down to 1.8% in July, where it will stay in August.
- This further drop in inflation over the summer should be enough for a 25bp rate cut in September.
- We expect CPI inflation to tick up to 3.5% in June from 3.4% in May, 0.1pp higher than the MPC expects.
- Surging food prices—the biggest three-month rise in two years—and motor fuel base effects boost inflation.
- Hot weather and a likely late CPI collection date pose upside risks to clothes prices.
- In one line: Consumer-facing industries are buckling.
- In one line: Consumer-facing industries are buckling.
In one line: In line with our call for slightly softer German inflation in June.
In one line: EZ money and credit data still positive on economic outlook.
- In one line: Headline absurdity continues.
- The abundance of weak surveys points to a 100K first estimate for June payrolls.
- Downward revisions to estimated payrolls in April and May also are likely.
- Scraps of evidence suggest late responses from struggling small businesses explains the pattern.
- Deep BanRep Board divisions and sticky inflation expectations are delaying further rate cuts.
- Rising fiscal deficits and political noise are under- mining policy credibility and investor confidence.
- Stronger growth gives limited relief as inflation risks and external pressures continue to build.
- Retail sales growth in Thailand is still at an absurdly-high double-digit rate; ignoring the rosy headlines…
- …The monthly consumption index remains weak, and fading confidence points to more downside.
- Consumption looks set to continue rising, though, as wages recover alongside productivity.
- The PBoC on Friday hinted it saw less need for a near- term monetary policy boost than three months ago.
- The June official manufacturing PMI improved, thanks to policy support and an easing in tariff tensions.
- The construction PMI ticked up at last, but it’s too soon to celebrate; the hard data pointed to slowing.
- Total HICP inflation prints for the Big Four suggest EZ headline inflation edged up to 2.0% in June.
- The ECB strategy review suggests the central bank is doing the right thing with the right tools; go figure!
- Money data still point to upside risks to GDP, but don’t capture what is happening in net trade.
- An upward revision to Q1 consumer spending growth gives a more solid base to economic growth.
- The household saving rate dip in Q1 is a sign of things to come, which should support consumer spending.
- Firms are borrowing again as all the “Liberation Day” surge in economic policy uncertainty has unwound.
In one line: A second straight fall.
In one line: Manufacturing activity index rises thanks to eased tariff tensions and domestic policy support
China's Official PMIs point to improving manufacturing and construction activity, but weak jobs market
- In one line: Banxico cuts again, but rising inflation and a split Board signal a slower, more cautious easing cycle ahead.
