Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Brazilian Real — Rebound tests fiscal resolve
- Mexican Peso — Rally faces growing headwinds
- Colombian Peso — Currency strength facing fiscal test
- A glass-half-full perspective indicates that the stars are aligned for a “beautiful releveraging” in the EZ.
- The EZ economy is completing a soft landing, an important prerequisite for a beautiful releveraging.
- Germany leading from the front is a key condition for a growth-supporting leverage cycle in the Eurozone.
- We expect GDP to rise 0.1% month-to-month in May, as professional services activity rebounds.
- We still look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.2% in Q2, below the MPC’s latest projection, 0.3%.
- We remain upbeat on underlying growth, partly supporting our call for just one more rate cut in 2025.
In one line: June’s increase will more than reverse in July.
In one line: June’s increase will more than reverse in July.
In one line: German unemployment rate won’t hold steady for much longer; inflation expectations likely to continue to fall.
In one line: Pointing to downside risks for GDP in Q2.
In one line: Pointing to downside risks for GDP in Q2.
- In one line: Expect a further rise in food inflation in the July report.
- In one line: Export growth probably will buckle again in Q3.
- In one line: Post-export-front-loading clouds continue to darken.
Post-export-front-loading clouds for ASEAN continue to darken
Indonesian export growth probably will buckle again in Q3
Expect a further rise in Indonesian food inflation in the July report
In one line: Caixin PMI concurs with official index in showing manufacturing activity rebound
China's Caixin PMI, Korea's PMI and Japan's Tankan point to manufacturers' measured relief at easing trade tensions
INCREASED GEOPOLITICAL RISK…
- …FORCING SOME CENTRAL BANKS TO MOVE TO THE SIDELINES
- US - Expect soft June payrolls, and yet another set of downward revisions
- EUROZONE - June’s EZ inflation rise will more than reverse in July and August
- UK - Payroll data have gone haywire; job growth is likely improving
- CHINA+ - BoJ to sit tight as stagflation risk rears its ugly head
- EM ASIA - Hoping we’re not jinxing it…we rescind our call for SBV cuts in 2025
- LATAM - Banxico signals slower data-driven easing, as inflation risks persist
- Rising JOLTS job openings are driven by hospitality firms rehiring to comply with employment laws...
- ...Measurement problems also boosting the numbers; large downward revisions are now common.
- Tariff revenues currently equal 10% of the value of imports, but the effective tariff rate likely is higher.
- Growth momentum is fading in Chile as temporary drivers wane and consumption stabilises.
- Industrial production is still strong, led by mining, but job-market weakness remains a threat.
- Political polarisation and election uncertainty are rising, posing new risks to policy and capex.
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI deteriorated further in June, and all signs point to more near-term falls.
- Indonesian export growth is in for a rockier H2, in spite of evidence of stabilising demand from China.
- Consumer sectors were to blame for India’s poor May IP; that’s a double whammy for the economy.
- The Caixin PMI rebounded more strongly than the official manufacturing index in June…
- …Deflation pressures are festering, however, likely forcing regulatory curbs on excessive competition.
- Korea’s manufacturing PMI is starting to rise from its sickbed, now the election has reduced political risk.
