Pantheon Publications

18 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ PPI data have something for ECB hawks and doves alike

• EZ PPI inflation, ex-services, is stabilising just below 1%, but divergence among sectors is high.
• The trend in global energy prices points to continued deflation in EZ energy producer prices…
• …But food producer price inflation is sticky, signalling upside risk to consumer prices in this category.

18 August 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: hawkish week underscores the MPC's challenge

• Above-consensus payrolls and GDP growth show the job market is recovering and growth is holding firm.
• The MPC faces rebounding growth, a stabilising job market and inflation miles above target.
• We expect CPI inflation for July to come in fractionally below the MPC’s forecast at 3.7%.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, France, July 2025

In one line: Holding steady at a low level.  

Global Datanote: BoJ Decision, Japan, July

In one line: BoJ stands pat today, nudges up its inflation forecast; Ueda dovish at presser 

Global Datanote: Official Manufacturing PMI, China, July

In one line: China PMI signals weakening manufacturing momentum at the start of H2; policy support likely ahead

Global Datanote: Loan Prime Rates, China, July

In one line: China keeps LPR unchanged, further easing expected in the second half of 2025

Global Datanote: 20-Day Exports, Korea, July

In one line: Korea’s early export data remains sturdy on WDA basis amid US trade uncertainty 

China+ Datanote: Foreign Reserves, China, July

In one line: China’s FX reserves dip on stronger dollar and bond loses in July.

China+ Datanote: Exports, China, July

In one line: China’s monthly export momentum fades in July; pharma shipments surged while rare-earth exports rebound.

China+ Datanote: Wages, Japan, June

In one line : Japan’s nominal wage growth remains sturdy amid trade headwinds, but real wages stay deeply negative.

China+ Datanote: BoJ Decision, Japan, July

In one line: BoJ stands pat today, nudges up its inflation forecast; Ueda dovish at presser 

China+ Datanote: Official Non-Manufacturing PMI, China, July

In one line: NBS non-manufacturing PMI dragged down by construction activity in July.

China+ Datanote: Official Manufacturing PMI, China, July

In one line: China PMI signals weakening manufacturing momentum at the start of H2; policy support likely ahead

China+ Datanote: Industrial Profits, China, June

In one line: China’s industrial profits slid further in June, weighed down by oversupply, weak demand and excessive competition.

China+ Datanote: Loan Prime Rates, China, July

In one line: China keeps LPR unchanged, further easing expected in the second half of 2025

China+ Datanote: 20-Day Exports, Korea, July

In one line: Korea’s early export data remains sturdy on WDA basis amid US trade uncertainty 

China+ Datanote: Exports, Japan, June

In one line: Japan’s exports slip unexpectedly in June, raising risk of a technical recession

15 August 2025 US Monitor Does the core PPI jump imply consumer prices are about to soar?

• We estimate the core PCE deflator rose by 0.26% in July; most relevant PPI components rose modestly.
• The rise in distributors’ margins in the PPI is implausible, given surging tariff revenues and CPI data.
• We think hopes for a near-term “reshoring boost” to manufacturing look misplaced. 

15 August 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's retail slump deepens as services lose steam in late Q2

• Retail sales declined sharply in Brazil, with credit-sensitive segments under the most pressure.
• Services held firm up until June, but PMI data now point to a weakening trend.
• Consumer sentiment is fragile, and high interest rates continue to weigh on household spending.

15 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ GDP slowed in Q2 and will fall outright in Q3, marginally

• The slowdown in EZ GDP growth in Q2 was confirmed, mainly due to weakness in industry. 
• Industry will likely be a bigger drag on GDP in Q3, and the strength in construction will not continue.
• The labour market continues to support GDP growth; surveys suggest employment will stay solid.