Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- The EZ current account surplus widened in June, despite a sharp drop in the goods trade balance.
- Services trade was a boost to GDP in Q2, unlike goods trade.
- Foreign investors are funnelling into EZ assets, but this isn’t a new Trump-era trend.
- Sterling has had a mixed year so far against peers, as policy uncertainty has soared.
- We expect less easing than the market, but fiscal worries will weigh on sterling come Budget time.
- Pantheon’s interest rate calls collectively imply cable at 1.35 and GBPEUR at 1.18 at end-2025.
THE ECONOMY WILL REMAIN STUCK IN A LOW GEAR IN H2
- UNEMPLOYMENT WILL WORRY THE FED MORE THAN INFLATION
The outlook for homebuilding remains grim.
- Thai GDP growth in Q2 was largely in line with expectations, cooling to 2.8% from 3.2%…
- …Export front-loading was still a big part of the story, but this lift should now unwind quickly in H2.
- We still see a broad slowdown, but our 2025 and 2026 forecasts now stand at 2.0% and 1.8%.
- Foreigners are not “paying” for President Trump’s tariffs: pre-tariff import prices are holding steady…
- …That leaves US consumers and businesses shouldering nearly all of the additional costs.
- Homebase data point to a rebound in private payrolls, but likely give a misleading signal.
- The hit to EZ goods trade from higher US tariffs is visible in the nominal monthly figures.
- Goods trade was a drag on EZ GDP in Q2, mainly due to a fall in exports to the US in April to June.
- We suspect the nominal goods trade surplus will turn to a deficit in Q3.
- The ONS’s measure of house prices rebounded by 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis in May.
- Activity indicators and gains in the private-sector house price indices suggest another rise in June.
- Sticky interest rates are a risk to house price inflation, but we retain our call for prices to gain 3.75% in 2025.
In one line: Net trade in goods was a drag on GDP in Q2.
US tariff themes aplenty in Thailand’s Q2; expect a faster slowdown in H2
- In one line: RICS falters in July but it will gradually rise in H2.
- In one line:Strong GDP growth in H1 illustrates a high neutral rate.
In one line: lacklustre broad credit growth, excluding government bonds
In one line: China's weakening investment and retail sales data raise worries for H2 demand outlook
Price pressures are building, but July's data overstate the intensity.
In one line: Q2 slowdown confirmed; industry partly to blame.
- Growth in consumers’ real spending has stabilized following in sharp slowdown in H1 2025...
- ...But the labor market is set to remain weak, and most of the uplift to prices from tariffs lies ahead.
- We think spending will grow only at a meager 1-to-1½% pace in second half of this year.
- EM Asia's contribution to world growth continues to rise, thanks in no small part to its demographics…
- …Working-age populations won’t peak for another two decades, but chinks in the armour are emerging.
- We expect a further softening in Thai GDP growth in Q2, to 2.7%; look for a much smaller q/q trade lift.
- China’s July activity data point to a worrying slowdown in domestic demand, notably investment.
- Industrial and services output maintained growth, however, above the 5% target for official GDP growth.
- More targeted stimulus will be needed in the coming months, especially if and when export growth sinks.
