Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Isabel Schnabel draws another line in the sand for the ECB’s policy rate to stay at 2.0%…
- …but we still think she and other hawks will lose out as dovish data tee up a 25bp cut in September.
- Fair value models point to Bund yields at 2.5%, but fiscal policy and Dutch pension selling say otherwise.
- A second consecutive drop in GDP raises the chances that the MPC cuts rate again in August.
- But GDP should bounce in June, as real estate and car output improves and retail sales gain.
- We expect May’s payrolls fall to be revised much smaller and CPI inflation to tick up to 3.5% in June.
- In one line: Cooling inflation meets new headwinds.
In one line: Reversing most of April’s jump.
- In one line: Cooling inflation meets new headwinds.
In one line: At target, and risks tilted to the downside over the summer.
Committee is more clearly split; weaker labor market to tip the balance by September.
- The OBR has again deemed the public finances to be on an unsustainable trajectory.
- Climate-change mitigation and an ageing population will be costly for the exchequer.
- Lifting productivity growth is crucial for ensuring the debt burden remains manageable.
- In one line: Core pressures lingering, but disinflation resumes.
- In one line: Core pressures lingering, but disinflation resumes.
- President Trump’s policies will slow the flow of immigration into the US, but not halt it entirely.
- The idea that a big migrant exodus from the labor market is already underway is at odds with the data.
- We continue to think labor demand will grow more slowly than supply, lifting the unemployment rate.
- Brazil’s inflation is stabilising, but the US tariffs shock threatens growth and adds new inflation risks.
- Market reaction has been swift, but fundamentals and carry still support a stable BRL outlook.
- Services inflation remains sticky and disinflation could stall if external strains persist or escalate.
- The BoK kept the policy rate unchanged in July, citing concerns over trade policy and Seoul’s housing market.
- The MPB was torn, focusing its decision on trade- induced growth worries versus financial stability risk.
- We expect the Bank to resume rate-cutting once apartment prices show signs of easing in Seoul.
- A third of Swiss pharma exports go to the US; a 200% tariff could pull GDP down 4% at the extreme.
- Offsetting factors remain and, in the near term, tariff front-running poses upside risks to our forecasts.
- The maximum direct hit to EZ GDP of a 200% US tariff on pharma is 1%.
- Green shoots of recovery emerge in the housing market as stamp duty disruption fades.
- The RICS new buyer enquiries balance jumped by the most month-to-month in 24 years, ignoring Covid.
- Homeowners should face a much smaller refinancing rate rise this year than in 2023 or 2024.
- In one line: Producer deflation worsens due to weather hitting construction, a jump in renewable energy generation and trade frictions
Indonesian sales remain tepid, at best… stimulus ‘pop’ looking small
China's worsening producer deflation mainly due to bad weather
Low core consumer inflation reflects weak demand
- In one line: Sales extend their slide as headwinds mount.
- In one line: Inflation falls again; BCCh likely to cut rates.
