Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Signs of stabilization, but big headwinds remain.
Still weak enough to sustain the pressure for more Fed easing.
In one line: Still weak enough to sustain the pressure for more Fed easing.
- In one line: Few reasons for builders to be more optimistic in 2026, so the construction PMI will remain weak.
- In one line: Job falls ease after the Budget circus ends while inflation remains stick.
In one line: Q4 was better than Q3.
- In one line: Inflation rises marginally, but disinflation remains on track.
- In one line: Under pressure, despite modest manufacturing gains.
- In one line: President Boluarte removed; uncertainty persists but economy remains resilient.
- In one line: Showing tentative signs of stabilisation, but tight financial conditions remain a drag.
- In one line: Export growth eases, but Q4 GDP remains on track for a millennia-high.
In one line: Industry slowed sharply in Q4, but goods spending likely accelerated.
In one line: Spanish industry had a solid November.
In one line: Strong manufacturing, but plunging exports.
Sales growth in Malaysia dips
- The trend in payrolls is unlikely to improve in Q1; catch-up growth in healthcare jobs is now over...
- ...And December’s jump in leisure and hospitality payrolls looks set to unwind, just like a year ago.
- The sharp rise in involuntary part-time working is a red flag, signaling that layoffs will pick up in Q1.
- Disinflation is broadening in Brazil, as tradables cool and currency strength reinforces policy credibility…
- …The COPOM will begin a cautious easing cycle; fiscal risks and labour tightness will slow the pace of cuts.
- Industrial output is improving sequentially in Mexico, but weak exports and the USMCA review are threats.
- Taiwan’s AI boom is losing momentum, with December seeing the first cooling in exports…
- …Export growth will continue to slow in 2026, due to high base effects, despite aggressive AI spending.
- Malaysian retail sales growth slid in December, but this probably won’t matter much for Q4 GDP.
- China’s PPI improved on the back of a better supply-demand balance and rising non-ferrous metal prices.
- December’s CPI pick-up was due to transient factors such as food, offset by falling energy prices.
- Sustained reflation momentum will be difficult to maintain as economic fundamentals remain weak.
- A jump in German manufacturing points to upside risk to Q4 GDP, but we still see a modest 0.2% rise.
- We’re lifting our Q4 growth forecast in France, by 0.2pp to 0.1%, due to strength in our nowcast model.
- Evidence of robust Q4 GDP in France and Germany will be reassuring news for the ECB.
