Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Consumption strong through November, but on shaky foundations.
In one line: EZ consumers seem to be beating the January blues.
Low claims largely due to lower-than-usual post-holiday layoffs.
- The Fed will leave rates on hold this week, but three members will vote to ease again...
- ...And key members will place more weight on the further slowdown in payrolls than robust GDP.
- We still expect rising unemployment to spur easing in H1, but major personnel changes now look less likely.
- Activity in Argentina slipped in November, exposing weak momentum after the mid-term elections…
- …Manufacturing and commerce output fell sharply, while growth is focused on low-employment sectors.
- BCCh will pause amid easing inflation, BCB will hold despite stickiness, and BanRep will tighten as risks rise.
- India’s flash PMIs for January saw a big bounce in both headlines; no trend-change yet, though…
- …Their early Q1 signal points to sub-7.0% GDP growth, and we think it will fall more in Q2 and Q3.
- Our final call for Taiwan’s Q4 GDP print is 12.3%, much higher than the 8.4% consensus.
- The BoJ held rates on Friday, despite rising bond and currency pressure, linked to fiscal policy worries.
- PM Takaichi should emerge from the February 8 election stronger, allowing her to cut taxes.
- The likely tax cut on food will drag inflation by 1pp in 2026, and can be funded from rising tax revenue.
- EZ PMIs were resilient in January but now signal downside risk to growth relative to official forecasts.
- The risk of a dovish surprise in the PMIs in Q1 has increased, given upbeat growth expectations.
- Rising output prices in services are a key hawkish detail in the January PMIs; will this be sustained?
- The labour market is still loosening gradually, but price pressures are sticky and growth is rebounding.
- Rising consumers’ confidence and the jump in the flash PMI suggest positive momentum in Q1.
- We remain comfortable with our call for just one more cut to Bank Rate this year, in April.
- In one line: Another no-move meeting, with optimism building.
In one line: Japan's overall exports rise, despite falling shipments to the US
- - CHINA SEES LESS URGENCY TO STABILISE PROPERTY MARKET
- - BOJ WON'T HURRY RATE HIKES, DESPITE SNAP ELECTION
- - BOK LIKELY HOPES TO SQUEEZE IN ONE MORE RATE CUT
- In one line: Retail sales stabilises, but risks remain.
- Solid increases in consumers’ spending in October and November point to a 2½-to-3% gain in Q4…
- …But the sustainable pace now is far lower, given weak income growth and a rock-bottom saving rate.
- FOMC members’ forecasts for Q4 core PCE inflation were too high; they’re unduly gloomy about 2026 too.
- Inflation is still contained in Mexico, but excise taxes and services are slowing the final stage of disinflation.
- Sticky core inflation and firmer consumption argue for Banxico to pause after an extended easing cycle.
- Trade uncertainty, tariffs and USMCA risk reinforce the need for cautious policy in H1.
- BNM held the OPR at 2.75% yesterday, in line with expectations, prolonging its ongoing pause.
- For now, AI-driven export strength should continue, meaning no rate cuts in 2026.
- Subdued inflation should leave the door open to a rate cut in the event of an economic shock.
- President Trump has backed down on Greenland, bringing relief to Nuuk, Copenhagen and markets.
- The EZ budget deficit widened in Q3, driven mainly by a significant increase in Germany’s deficit.
- Risks to Germany’s fiscal push remain tilted towards near-term disappointment on growth.
- December’s public finances report showed borrowing was below the OBR’s most recent projections.
- The shaky foundations of the Budget create a risk of looser fiscal policy in the coming years.
- Risks are tilted towards a sell-off in the gilt market as investors re-price in long-term fiscal pressures.
- In one line: Underlying inflation remians sticky, even though headline CPI is set to temporarily slow in the first half of 2026.
