Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Bank Indonesia surprised again this month by lowering the BI rate by a further 25bp to 5.00%…
- …We reiterate our 4.75% end-2025 call; the recent food CPI pop is skin-deep and the core is fading.
- Malaysian exports surprised everyone by expanding in July, after two months of contraction.
- Stable inflation in July was confirmed; the core held steady but food and energy inflation rose.
- Higher inflation is on the cards, as energy deflation continues to unwind and food inflation climbs.
- For now, though, we think a fall in core inflation will convince the ECB to push through another rate cut.
- Food, energy-price increases and an erratic jump in airfares drove CPI inflation up to 3.8%.
- Underlying services inflation is easing but remains far too high for the MPC to cut rapidly.
- Headline CPI averaging 3.8% for the rest of 2025 means the MPC will have to stay on hold.
- US - Consumption growth is stabilizing, at a sluggish pace
- EUROZONE - EZ goods trade surplus nears zero as US exports continue to slide
- UK - Stabilising jobs and strong wage gains limit the MPC’s room to cut
- CHINA+ - China’s domestic demand swoons in the scorching summer heat
- EM ASIA - A fairly decent Q2, but Thai GDP growth will now slow more sharply
- LATAM - Banxico slows pace of easing as core inflation pressures persist
- The One Big Beautiful Bill Act includes sharp cuts to federal health spending, mostly affecting Medicaid.
- That will probably be a minor long-term headwind for the sector in the coming years.
- But the hit will take time to arrive, and the long-term tailwind from an ageing population looks far bigger.
- The PBoC on Monday gave no hint of imminent easing, despite July’s underwhelming activity data.
- China is likely to go slow on further policy support, so it has options if trade talks with the US hit a wall.
- The property market is worsening again, putting developer finances under pressure.
- The EZ current account surplus widened in June, despite a sharp drop in the goods trade balance.
- Services trade was a boost to GDP in Q2, unlike goods trade.
- Foreign investors are funnelling into EZ assets, but this isn’t a new Trump-era trend.
- Sterling has had a mixed year so far against peers, as policy uncertainty has soared.
- We expect less easing than the market, but fiscal worries will weigh on sterling come Budget time.
- Pantheon’s interest rate calls collectively imply cable at 1.35 and GBPEUR at 1.18 at end-2025.
THE ECONOMY WILL REMAIN STUCK IN A LOW GEAR IN H2
- UNEMPLOYMENT WILL WORRY THE FED MORE THAN INFLATION
The outlook for homebuilding remains grim.
- Thai GDP growth in Q2 was largely in line with expectations, cooling to 2.8% from 3.2%…
- …Export front-loading was still a big part of the story, but this lift should now unwind quickly in H2.
- We still see a broad slowdown, but our 2025 and 2026 forecasts now stand at 2.0% and 1.8%.
- Foreigners are not “paying” for President Trump’s tariffs: pre-tariff import prices are holding steady…
- …That leaves US consumers and businesses shouldering nearly all of the additional costs.
- Homebase data point to a rebound in private payrolls, but likely give a misleading signal.
- The hit to EZ goods trade from higher US tariffs is visible in the nominal monthly figures.
- Goods trade was a drag on EZ GDP in Q2, mainly due to a fall in exports to the US in April to June.
- We suspect the nominal goods trade surplus will turn to a deficit in Q3.
- The ONS’s measure of house prices rebounded by 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis in May.
- Activity indicators and gains in the private-sector house price indices suggest another rise in June.
- Sticky interest rates are a risk to house price inflation, but we retain our call for prices to gain 3.75% in 2025.
In one line: Net trade in goods was a drag on GDP in Q2.
US tariff themes aplenty in Thailand’s Q2; expect a faster slowdown in H2
- In one line: RICS falters in July but it will gradually rise in H2.
- In one line:Strong GDP growth in H1 illustrates a high neutral rate.
In one line: lacklustre broad credit growth, excluding government bonds
In one line: China's weakening investment and retail sales data raise worries for H2 demand outlook
