Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
China's consumer spending was boosted by longer holiday
infrastructure investment rebounds thanks to policy support
Industrial output lifted by export demand
Iran war forcing an upgrade to our 2026 India WPI forecast to 5%
- In one line: Households thought weaker inflation trends would be only temporary, and expectations will jump sharply now energy prices have surged.
- In one line: Higher energy costs will weigh on the trade balance.
- In one line:January disappointment partly driven by erratic sectors that will rebound, but we shave our Q1 growth call to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
In one line: Higher energy costs will make a bad situation worse.
In one line: On track for 2% by May.
- January was the fifth straight month of sub-0.3% gains in real consumption; the worst since 2012.
- Oil prices will squeeze real incomes by 11/4% if they are sustained at $100, or 1/2% if they follow futures.
- Households lack the balance sheet strength to brush this aside; spending will grow only modestly.
- Mexico’s industrial output fell sharply in January as key sub-sectors weakened simultaneously.
- Soft external demand, tight financial conditions and policy uncertainty continue to weigh on activity.
- Infrastructure spending and US supply-chain integration will likely support a gradual recovery in H2.
- Introducing our regional activity heat maps, giving a snapshot of cyclical growth stage and momentum…
- …They show that major exporters continue to outperform domestic-oriented peers in early 2026.
- Indian inflation rose further in February on food prices; our 4.0% view for 2026 remains appropriate.
- We expect little improvement in China’s consumption activity in January-to-February in the data out today...
- ...Falling car sales should off set higher holiday spending, while the FAI improvement will be slow.
- Government-bond issuance continues to prop up broad credit growth; corporate credit should edge up.
- Inflation in France snapped back in February and is now headed for 2% by May.
- Eurozone industry stumbled at the start of 2026, and another energy-price shock weighs on the outlook.
- March’s European Council meeting could provide hints on support measures for EZ industry.
- Markets are pricing a more persistent energy-price rise as the war in Iran continues.
- As a result, markets have started to price in higher medium- as well as short-term inflation.
- We see Bank Rate on hold throughout 2026, but that is sensitive to energy and the government’s response.
- In one line: Still mainly a food story, but Middle East pressures should surface in the March data.
- In one line: Still mainly a food story, but Middle East pressures should surface in the March data.
- In one line: War in the Middle East will hit housing market sentiment in the coming months.
Brace for a potential inflation hit to Malaysian retail sales growth this year
- QCEW data suggest payrolls probably fell by about 10K per month in the six months to September.
- The gap between first and final payroll estimates is trending at about 70K, still big relative to history.
January’s jump in housing starts will unwind; population growth is slow and affordability
- stretched.
- Brazil’s February inflation confirms the disinflation trend, but the oil-price surge carries upside risk.
- Higher oil prices could delay the COPOM’s easing cycle, keeping financial conditions tight.
- Retail sales started the year strongly, but low confidence signals fragile consumption.
- Malaysian January retail sales volumes dipped on a seasonally adjusted month-to-month basis.
- We expect a mild increase in inflation over the year because of the Middle East crisis...
- …Which could create risks to financial stability, via higher debt, if it doesn’t curb consumer spending.
