Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Indonesia’s soaring equities sold off sharply last week, threatened with a downgrade to ‘frontier’…
- …Fundamentally, the correction seems harsh, from the standpoint of improving ‘real’ economic activity.
- Thailand’s election at the end of this week still looks set to result in a fragile coalition government.
- Tokyo headline inflation fell 0.5pp to 1.5% in January, but driven mainly by one-off factors.
- Inflation should slow this year, be cause of cooling food prices, despite the recent bout of JPY weakness.
- The BoJ is likely to next hike rates in Q4, providing currency moves are manageable.
- We now look for EZ headline inflation at 1.8% in January, with the core rate unchanged at 2.3%.
- Energy and services inflation fell in Germany but were overpowered by rising goods and food inflation.
- The EZ economy shrugged off tariff whiplash last year, ending 2025 on a high.
- A big jump in the BRC’s shop price index provides a warning of sticky price pressures.
- The lending data for December were more downbeat than November’s, but consumers still seem content.
- We forecast a six-to-three vote for a hold at this week’s MPC meeting, and expect little change to guidance .
In one line: Sentiment improves; selling price expectations edge down.
In one line: Easing M1 growth offset by falling inflation, for now.
In one line: Spanish households tightened their purse strings during the holidays.
Anti-graft drive drags Philippine growth down to weakest in nearly 15 years
POST-BUDGET REBOUND AND STICKY PAY GROWTH...
- …SO THE MPC CAN CUT RATES JUST ONCE THIS YEAR
- In one line: An unexpected—if narrow—jump to a 26-month high.
- In one line: An unexpected—if narrow—jump to a 26-month high.
Sagging Philippine imports—masked by base effects—is the real story
DOVISH INFLATION DATA SET UP A NERVY Q1 FOR THE ECB...
- …BUT THE BAR FOR FURTHER EASING REMAINS HIGH
- Tariff revenues will total $29B in January, $5B below October’s peak and $15B below official forecasts.
- More Canadian and Mexican goods than expected have become USMCA compliant, entering tariff-free.
- Solid inventories and plunging imports seem at odds; measurement issues likely are flattering GDP growth.
- Ongoing disinflation, cooling activity and BRL strength allow Brazil's COPOM to prepare for cautious easing…
- …The guidance has shifted to a calibration of easing, making a March rate cut the clear baseline.
- The BCCh held rates, signalling patience as disinflation outpaces expectations; further easing remains likely.
- The Philippines’ Q4 GDP was grim, with growth plummeting to just 3.0%, from 3.9% in Q3…
- …We’ve yet to see signs of a bottom in investment-related indicators, while consumption remains soft.
- We’ve cut our already-below-consensus GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 4.8%, from 5.0%.
- US allies’ visits to China signal geopolitical hedging, but don’t expect genuine economic integration.
- Beijing appears to be organising these visits to isolate Washington, judging by who initiated the invitations.
- Middle powers are hedging against US unpredictability, but economic fragmentation will lead to higher inflation.
- Money supply and credit data signal a stable trend in EZ GDP growth, at 0.3% quarter-to-quarter.
- The headline ESI index jumped to a post-Covid high in January, signalling upside risk to growth.
- ESI selling price expectations eased in January, but upside risk to services inflation lingers.
- House prices jumped in November, leaving our call for a 2.0% year-over-year gain in Q4 2025 on track.
- We expect the market to heat up in 2026, as new buyers return from the sidelines.
- House price inflation should rise to 3.0% by Q4 2026, supported by stronger demand and weak supply.
In one line: Italian economy starts the year on strong footing.
