Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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In one line: BoJ won’t be shocked by modest rise in inflation; likely to hold rates next week waiting for clarity on the new government’s fiscal easing
The 2025 upswing in India's PMIs has stalled
SURPRISE HOLDS FROM THE BOT AND BI WON’T LAST
- …A SERIES OF EARLY-Q3 GDP UPSIDE SHOCKS IN ASEAN
Lower mortgage rates boost sales, but major headwinds remain.
In one line: On the up, but still subdued.
- In one line: Manufacturing activity will manage only small gains in the coming months.
- In one line: Back in contraction.
In one line: Punchy headline, but details remain flaky.
- In one line: Uneven performance, but risks remain tilted to the downside.
- In one line: Uneven performance, but risks remain tilted to the downside.
- In one line: Another month, another surprise… this time for a pause, as the Board adopts wait-and-see.
- In one line: Another month, another surprise… this time for a pause, as the Board adopts wait-and-see.
- Payroll trends have consistently been a good guide to the economy’s momentum in the past.
- Job growth often responds far more quickly at major turning points than contemperaneous GDP.
- The current near-stagnation in job gains is alarming, despite the relatively healthy economic activity data.
- Industry in Mexico remains in contraction, with services sustaining limited but consistent growth.
- Easing headline inflation gives Banxico room to make cautious, data-driven policy rate cuts.
- Fiscal support and lower rates will help cushion growth, but structural headwinds persist into 2026.
- Taiwan retail sales slipped back into contraction in September, as motor sales plunged yet again.
- Strong economic growth contrasts sharply with sluggish wages and weak household spending…
- …Nonetheless, exports should stand out in next week’s Q3 GDP data; we expect an acceleration.
- The BoK held the policy rate yesterday, while signalling its readiness for a rate cut next month...
- ...But only if the KRW stabilises, in turn resting on US-Korea talks, and if the Seoul property market cools.
- China’s Fourth Plenum signalled continued reliance on the manufacturing-export growth model.
- Inflation data clearly suggest the ECB is now on hold, but other data have tilted dovishly recently.
- A delay to the implementation of ETS2 could be exactly what ECB doves need for a rate cut in Q4…
- …But our forecasts still imply that the Bank will need to lift its core inflation outlook, precluding a cut.
- Soft inflation data and the prospect of greater fiscal headroom mean we cut our gilt-yield forecasts.
- We now expect the two-year gilt yield to end the year at 3.80%, and the 10-year at 4.55%.
- All of the good news is priced into yields, increasing the risk of a post-Budget market disappointment.
Cost-push pressures are pushing up Malaysian inflation
- In one line: The trade deficit is trending sideways as gas prices keep import costs elevated.
