Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Malaysian export growth fell in November, but this was expected, due to unfriendly base effects…
- … And it should not be extrapolated as a sign of slowing export growth momentum.
- Headline growth in December will likely increase on the back of a turnaround in electronics exports.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- FOMC speeches move markets, but they are not a reliable guide to what will happen in three months.
- The surge in November single-family starts is noise, not signal; expect a correction in December.
- People’s uneasiness over the labor market signals a gradually upward trend in unemployment.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Homebase signals December payroll growth of about 225K; no sign of further weakening yet.
- Lower rates are beginning to cheer homebuilders, who will gain further market share as home sales rise.
- Single-family construction is rebounding, fitfully, but the multi-family rollover has further to go.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Singaporean export growth finally returned to the black in November after 13 months…
- …But the recovery is likely to be gradual, as weak demand weighs on the pace of inventory clearance.
- The slow march in electronics exports will likely show more strongly next year.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- President Milei has rolled up his sleeves, announcing concrete measures to put the economy on track.
- Inflation rebounded sharply in November, and the rapid uptrend will persist over the first half of 2024.
- Chile rejected a constitution proposal for the second time in a year; does this mean uncertainty?
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Net exports are poised to lift GDP growth in Q4, but by how much? We look for a 0.1pp rise.
- Export growth will rebound next year, but we think imports will recover relatively more.
- We believe rising goods imports will weigh on net exports and GDP growth in 2024.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Ofgem likely will reduce its default tariff cap by 10% in April, if wholesale prices remain at their current level.
- Current weights imply this will reduce the all-items CPI by 0.5pp; the drag might be larger after weight updates.
- The recent fall in oil prices has improved the CPI inflation outlook too; we expect it to average just 2.7% in 2024.
Samuel TombsUK
In one line: German firms will be happy to say Goodbye to 2023!
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Pharmaceuticals boost Singaporean exports in November
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Fed’s forecasts imply remarkable stability in GDP growth and unemployment for the next three years…
- …They are likely to be wrong, and the risks to their numbers for next year are mostly to the downside.
- Homebuilders’ sentiment likely is rebounding as mortgage rates drop, with more to come.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- LatAm central banks pushed back on aggressive rate-cut expectations, despite the Fed’s policy shift.
- Banxico doubled down on its cautious approach, but we still think that rate cuts will come soon.
- Peru’s BCRP also embraced prudence, but bolder action will be possible in Q1, El Niño permitting.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The slump in Indonesian export growth eased more in November, with the commodities hit still fading…
- …This dynamic is helping imports, too, masking the grow th slowdown in consumer and capital goods.
- The crash in Philippine exports in October isn’t as bad as it looks, while the import jump is deceptive.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- November data show China’s consumption demand stagnating as winter closes in.
- The headline jump in industrial output is misleading, driven by utilities and base effects.
- A sharp fall in existing-home prices likely indicates a supply surge as investors offload proper ties.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Friday’s PMIs confirmed the EZ economy was still is in a rut in December, pointing to falling GDP in Q4.
- The PMI input price component suggests EZ headline inflation will stabilise at just under 2% in H1 24.
- Accelerating third quarter growth in hourly labour costs is grist on ECB hawks’ mills.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The composite PMI rose in December to a six-month high; consumers’ confidence is near a two-year high.
- This pick-up reflects rising real household disposable income, and possibly slowing savings replenishment.
- The MPC, however, needn’t stay very restrictive; the job market is loosening, and inflation pressures are fading.
Samuel TombsUK
Unwinding of the UAW strike hit boosts manufacturing, but output ex-autos remains weak.
US
In one line: Still-strong growth in labour costs; net trade on track for a rise in Q4?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Further recovery should ease recession fears.
Samuel TombsGlobal
- In one line: Further recovery should ease recession fears.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Recovery should gather momentum next year.
UK
