- In one line: A new post-pandemic low, but risks to the outlook from imported inflation increase.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Not enough to convince us consumption rose in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Japan’s inflation slows in November, thanks to easing food and core prices
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Japan National CPI slows sharply in November as cost-push factors ease
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: A gradual recovery should be sustained next year.
UK
- Bank Indonesia’s rebranded benchmark rate—the BI rate —was held at 6.00%, as universally expected.
- BI understandably urged caution on food inflation, but base effects here will soon give a helping hand.
- With the core still subdued, the headline should fall below BI’s new target in Q2, paving the way for cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP is likely to rebound from Q1 next year, albeit slowly; consensus expects a quicker recovery.
- Inflation will fall more sharply than the consensus or ECB expects in H1, if we are correct on January…
- ...If so, the ECB will cut rates five times next year, starting in March, earlier than consensus expects.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The easing cycle has started in Colombia, as the economy struggles and thanks to the Fed’s shift.
- Chile’s BCCh accelerated the pace of easing, as inflation is falling and economic activity faltering.
- The trajectory of the Fed’s policy will determine the magnitude and timing of interest rate cuts in LatAm.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- We think the core PCE deflator rose by only 0.11% in November; the trend is slowing sharply.
- Consumers’ spending is still rising, but the rate of growth is moderating after the Q3 jump.
- Aircraft and autos likely lifted November orders, but expect a soft core.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Korea’s 20-day exports rose sharply in December on base effects, and jumps in vessel and chip exports.
- Exports to China and Hong Kong continue to recover, while shipments to the EU tanked.
- Any improvement in Korea’s exports hinges on how sustained the ICT rebound and China’s recovery are.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Layoffs still very depressed, but people are finding it harder to secure new jobs.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
In one line: Not as good as the headline would suggest.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Korean 20-day exports accelerate on the back of base effects and lumpy shipments of hi-tech vessels and semiconductors
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Korean 20-day exports accelerate on the back of base effects and lumpy shipments of hi-tech vessels and semiconductors
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The latest WARN data suggest layoffs remain low, but seasonals will lift initial claims in the next few weeks…
- …And rising continuing claims suggest people who lose their jobs are taking longer to find new positions.
- The jump in December confidence tells us that people like cheaper gas and rising stocks; who knew?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Mexico — Political noise on the increase
- Chile — Certainty after the constitutional vote?
- Peru — Calm for now
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The PBoC kept one-and five-year LPRs steady in December, after standing pat on MLF rates earlier.
- Japan’s exports dipped back into negative growth in November following two months of expansion.
- Exports to the US and EU slowed significantly, while car exports continue to grow, albeit less strongly.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
