Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Probably overstating the labor market’s health.
Indonesian retail sales took a—likely temporary—breather at the end of 2025
Price effects flatter Malaysian retail sales growth in December
- December’s soft retail sales point to a slowdown in growth in consumers’ spending in Q4.
- Meager income gains, subdued confidence and low saving imply spending growth will slow further in ‘26.
- Capex intentions remain extremely weak, despite the easing of Fed policy.
- Thailand’s Bhumjaithai party surprised with a clear win, smoothing A nutin’s path to becoming PM…
- …The People’s Party’s loss implies a bigger chance of internal stability and less risk of populist policy.
- We see no reason to change our growth outlook though, as structural headwinds will still dominate.
- China’s consumer inflation fell sharply due to holiday effects, but monthly momentum has strengthened.
- Producer deflation eased unevenly, driven mostly by non-ferrous metals and ‘experience’-related industries.
- The reflation process still has a long way to go and is likely to be choppy, especially for the PPI.
- We retain a steepening bias in our forecast for short-term interest rates, less so in Bunds.
- The trend is your friend in EZ 10-year yield spreads, and we think it will remain so this year.
- Germany’s MDAX equity index will outperform further this year as the domestic economy recovers.
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 3.1% in January, from 3.4% in December.
- Education, airfares and energy prices will all contribute to the inflation slowdown at the start of the year.
- But strong BRC Shop Prices and firm hotel prices mean inflation should exceed the MPC’s 2.9% call.
HOUSE PRICE INFLATION JUMPS IN NOVEMBER...
- ...AND BUYER DEMAND HAS FURTHER TO IMPROVE IN 2026
- We look for a 0.6% rise in December headline retail sales, underpinned by solid auto and control sales...
- That’s consistent with consumers’ spending rising by just over 3% in Q4...
- ...But soft income growth, depressed confidence and a rock-bottom saving rate point to weakness ahead.
- Mexican inflation stays contained but firmer core inflation justifies Banxico’s cautious pause.
- Non-core disinflation offsets tax-driven core stickiness leaving policy easing gradual in Q2.
- Colombia’s January CPI surge reflects the minimum-wage hike and the stalling convergence to target.
- Taiwan’s exports soared by 69.9% in January, with AI demand still overwhelming supply…
- ...though base effects, Lunar New Year distortion and less front-loading point to cooling ahead.
- AI demand could soften near term, due to lack of data centre readiness and delayed deployment.
- Japan’s snap election on Sunday produced a historic two-thirds majority for PM Takaichi’s LDP.
- She is in a strong position to press ahead with the food consumption tax cut, but funding details are awaited.
- On Thursday she called for a stable cut in the debt-to GDP ratio; she’ll likely avoid a Liz Truss moment.
- The 2026 budget in France aims for a modest improvement in the deficit, to 5.0% of GDP.
- A slowdown in tax revenue is a key risk for French budget consolidation efforts this year…
- …monthly fiscal revenues were rising briskly as of Q4 25; markets will scrutinise these data closely in 2026.
- The ONS updates CPI weights twice a year, in January and February.
- Our forecast of weight changes raises our inflation forecast only fractionally; by 3bp on average in 2026.
- ONS improvements to hotel price measurement will likely reduce seasonal swings in the component.
- In one line: Export growth surge never seems to stop.
In one line: Investors think a recovery is finally underway.
In one line: Japan's regular pay growth steady, as PM Takaichi secures resounding election win
In one line: Year-end slump in Spanish industrial output.
In one line: Production stung by falling auto output, but still managed a decent Q4.
- In one line: The likely long pause is here.
