Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- In one line: Headline still normalising; April consumption shows war squeeze.
In one line: BoJ won't be swayed by Tokyo inflation dip
Commodity-price surge is piling pressure on the peso
- We look for a 50K increase in May payrolls; the most reliable survey indicators have remained weak.
- After two straight above-consensus readings, pay- rolls surprise to the downside two-thirds of the time.
- The weather-related boost to April payrolls will un- wind; expect a drag from strikes and insolvencies too.
- Broad-based Q1 growth highlights resilient domestic demand in Brazil, despite a high Selic rate.
- Fiscal and credit support are cushioning activity, though underlying capex is less convincing.
- Persistent inflation pressures will likely keep the BCB cautious and slow the easing cycle.
- Thailand’s new co-payment stimulus starts today; we’ve nudged up our 2026 GDP call, to 2.3%…
- …The job market’s revival is a genuine tailwind, though its current form suggests some fragility.
- Philippines’ trade deficit ballooned unexpectedly in April, with commodity prices flattering imports.
- The new BoK Governor, Mr. Shin, is signalling a rate hike, likely as soon as July, worried about financial risks.
- Korea’s resurgent semiconductor exports out weigh the growth risk from higher energy costs.
- The BoJ is likely to raise the policy rate on June 16, despite Tokyo inflation slowing in May.
- Eurozone inflation likely rose further in May, by 0.2pp to 3.2%, as core inflation rebounded.
- Inflation in Germany, France and Spain surprised to the downside, but Italy was a punchy upside surprise.
- Italian Q1 growth was revised up, but we still look for a sharp slowdown in Q2 as consumption slows.
- The activity data has softened slightly over the past month, with the PMI dropping and payrolls tanking...
- ...Though surveys overreact to political noise, and we expect April payrolls to be revised up sharply.
- Still, a sharp drop in oil prices means we expect just one hike from the MPC, with risks skewed to no hikes.
GROWTH WOBBLES WHILE INFLATION JUMPS...
- …THE MPC WILL HOLD RATES AS LONG AS IT CAN
Weak sales likely to prompt a further drop in starts.
Recent increases in consumption look unsustainable.
- In one line: New Governor Shin signals rate hikes are on the way
In one line: BoK stays put today but new Governor Shin signals rate hikes on the way
BI SHOCKS WITH A 50BP HIKE; Q1 STRENGTH DUBIOUS
- …TAIWAN STILL FLYING, BUT DOWNSIDE RISKS ARE RISING
- Q1 growth in personal consumption was revised down to 1.4%, from 1.6%; April saw a marginal rise.
- Real after-tax income has dropped by 1.1% since April; the saving rate is now effectively at its floor.
- Rising asset prices will help, but sluggish growth in real wages and less fiscal support will limit spending.
- Mr. de la Espriella and Mr. Cepeda appear to be heading for a highly polarised run-off in Colombia.
- Security issues and fatigue with the Petro administration increasingly favour the opposition.
- A political shift will likely improve sentiment, but the structural vulnerabilities will remain.
- Singapore’s inflation was a surprise in April, as it held at 1.8%, despite the Middle East oil shock...
- ...Falling health premiums helped to moderate inflation, while transport inflation wasn’t that bad.
- Taiwan’s consumption stayed robust in April, notwithstanding the Middle East crisis.
- Chinese youth unemployment is hovering near historic highs, with AI only the latest factor weighing on hiring.
- We estimate the 10pp rise in youth unemployment since 2018 has knocked around 0.5pp off GDP growth.
- Still, China’s pursuit of AI as a critical growth engine aligns with public excitement and trust in AI.
- Energy inflation likely took a breather in May, but the EZ core will be pushed higher by a jump in services.
- EC economic sentiment rose slightly in May, painting a more positive picture than the PMIs.
- The fall in Spanish retail sales in April sends an ominous signal for EZ consumers’ spending in Q2.
