Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

5 February 2025 UK Monitor GDP likely unchanged in December and fell quarter-to-quarter in Q4

We expect GDP to stagnate in December, putting growth at -0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q4.
Industrial production likely fell, while we expect healthcare and education to detract from growth.
A small upward revision to November’s GDP would be enough to avoid GDP falling in Q4 as a whole.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

Global Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, January

Pre-tariff upturn probably will be fleeting.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)Global

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, January

Pre-tariff upturn probably will be fleeting.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

Global Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, December, 2024

In one line: The recovery continues, and expect further good news in Q1.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global

PM Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, December, 2024

In one line: The recovery continues, and expect further good news in Q1.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

UK Datanote: UK Final Manufacturing PMI, January 2025

In one line: President Trump’s tariffs will snuff out a nascent rebound in the PMI.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

Global Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, January 2025

In one line: Hot, but all eyes on tariffs this morning.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, January 2025

In one line: Hot, but all eyes on tariffs this morning.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: PMIs, Switzerland, January 2025

In one line: Likely underestimating Swiss GDP growth still, and pointing to weaker inflation.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 February 2025 US Monitor Unusually cold weather likely depressed January payroll growth

We look for a 125K increase in January payrolls, well below the 170K consensus.
Survey indicators present an incoherent picture, but unusually cold weather likely hit employment.
The small fall in continuing claims points to a stable unemployment rate, but the risks are to the upside.

Samuel TombsUS

4 February 2025 LatAm Monitor Temporary trade-war pause signals Mexico and US will collaborate

Presidents Sheinbaum and Trump agreed to pause tariffs, focusing on border-security cooperation.
BanRep held interest rates at 9.5%, surprising the consensus, citing inflation and Petro-Trump tensions.
Increasing inflation expectations and high labour costs are further threats, but BanRep will cut again.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

4 February 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor EM Asia factories in so-so shape as the new era of Trump tariffs starts

The PMIs show that regional manufacturing is still largely waning; watch for potential US front-loading.
Indonesia’s shockingly low January CPI was policy-induced and will reverse; it masked a jump in food.
Fiscal policy in India will stay contractionary, but the government riskily is hoping for a pain-free FY26.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

4 February 2025 China+Monitor China likely to temper its response to the US's opening move on tariffs

China is likely to be restrained in its retaliation to the US tariff hike announced over the weekend.
A limited trade war is more likely than a near-term grand bargain. Goodwill gestures seem likely.
The Caixin manufacturing PMI declined in January but held up better than the official gauge.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

4 February 2025 Eurozone Monitor A 10pp hike in US tariffs on EU imports priced in by EURUSD

President Trump will soon impose tariffs on imports from the EU, but the details are still up in the air.
A 10pp increase in tariffs on EU goods is all but fully factored in by the drop in EURUSD since Q3.
EZ headline and core inflation beat the consensus in January; still no perfect landing at 2% in sight.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 February 2025 UK Monitor Another stagflationary shock; CPI set to rise to 2.8% in January

We think President Trump’s tariffs, by fracturing supply chains, will be stagflationary for the UK.
We expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 2.8% in January, 0.3pp more than the MPC expected.
Goods inflation will slow, but airfares and private-school fees will boost services inflation.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK