Pantheon Publications

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, March 2026

• In one line: Iran war hits most factories hard; price shock immediate and big.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 April 2026

Iran war hits most ASEAN factories hard; price shock immediate and big
Indonesia’s trade surplus and exports will soon see brighter days
A swift return to BI’s target range thanks to base effects

Global Datanote: BanRep Announcement, Colombia, March 2026

• In one line: BanRep hikes again, doubling down on credibility.

PM Datanote: BanRep Announcement, Colombia, March 2026

• In one line: BanRep hikes again, doubling down on credibility.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, January 2026

• In one line: House price inflation has further to drop as the Iran War dents sentiment and boosts borrowing costs.

UK Datanote: Retail Sales, February 2026

• In one line:Retail sales supporting GDP in Q1, but consumers’ spending growth will ease in the coming months.

UK Datanote: UK GfK Consumers' Confidence Survey, March 2026

• In one line: Consumers’ confidence has further to fall in 2026.

UK Datanote: UK Money & Credit, February 2026

• In one line: Households and businesses on solid financial footing heading into the energy price shock.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, March 2026

• In one line: The housing market will weaken over the course of 2026.

PM Datanote: US JOLTS / Consumer Confidence

No sign of the labor market turning a corner.

2 April 2026 US Monitor February's strong retail sales data obscure underlying weakness

• February’s solid retail sales likely were lifted by the weather and a short-lived boost from tax refunds.
• The underlying trend probably is still soft, and looks set to slow further amid the shock to energy prices.
• We think consumption growth of around 2% in Q1 will be followed by unchanged spending in Q2. 

2 April 2026 LatAm Monitor Oil shock reshapes Latam FX, carry is a cushion for some

• Mexican peso —  Policy shift weakens the carry story
• Colombian peso — Carry and oil drive outperformance
• Chilean peso — Oil shock dominates the outlook

2 April 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Inflation, not growth, is a bigger near-term issue for ASEAN factories

• Stagflationary signs were seen in ASEAN’s PMI, as in India, but inflation is a bigger worry for the former.
• Indonesia’s soft March CPI is a big misdirect; we now see an eventual fuel price hike of 5% this year…
• …February’s export print was a let-down, but should mark the year’s low, as commodities will soon help.

2 April 2026 Eurozone Monitor Swiss inflation jumped in March, and will accelerate through 2026

• Higher energy prices in March more than offset the disinflationary impact of the strong Swiss franc....
• ....and likely pushed the headline inflation rate in Switzerland to 0.6%, from 0.1% in February.
• A surge in price-setting expectations suggests inflation will pick up quickly over the coming months.

2 April 2026 UK Monitor House price inflation will ease as buyers retreat to the sidelines

• The housing market was solid before the energy price shock, but activity will grind lower in 2026.
• Measures of supply are ticking up, which will put further pressure on prices.
• We look for house price inflation of 1.0% in Q4 2026, down from our previous forecast of 3.0%.

Global Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, March 2026

In one line: The stagflation shock is underway. 

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, March 2026

In one line: Stable, but renewed risks now loom. 

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation & Consumers' Spending, France, March/February 2026

In one line: Risks tilted to upside for EZ inflation; spending stung by weakness in both core and energy. 

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, January 2026

• In one line: Underlying spending growth was still in recovery mode pre-Iran war.