Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Weak growth in headline manufacturing output in recent years is hiding a boom in advanced industriess.
- That’s a plus for productivity and US economic leadership, less so for manufacturing employment.
- The construction sector remains mired in recession; data center surge is offsetting little of wider malaise.
- Mr. de la Espriella enters Colombia’s run-off with momentum, likely backed by Ms. Valencia’s voters.
- Chile’s recovery remains fragile as mining weakness persists; non-mining sectors are struggling…
- …Business confidence points to a recovey ahead, but activity data remain stubbornly weak.
- Our final forecast sees India’s Q1 GDP slumping to 6.4%, well short of the 7.2% consensus…
- …We’re with the consensus that the RBI will hold; hawkish views look over-eager with CPI below 6%.
- May CPI for the Philippines and Thailand should come in softer than expected, at 7.5% and 2.3%.
- China’s May PMIs point to a short-term improvement in construction and manufacturing.
- Still, Q2 average industrial output growth is likely to be below 5%, raising the chances of targeted support.
- Domestic demand remains sluggish, with petrol-car sales almost halving year-over-year in May.
- Domestic demand, ex-inventories, in Switzerland was flat in Q1 amid volatile inventories and net trade.
- Swiss CPI likely rose to 0.9% in May, from 0.6%. The SNB will stand pat in Q2 but raise inflation forecasts.
- EZ money supply and German retail sales are slowing, but inflation expectations remain elevated.
- The unwinding of fuel-hoarding likely drove a 0.2% month-to-month fall in GDP growth in April.
- We see risks to our April call in both directions, from better weather and a resident doctors’ strike.
- Downside risks to our forecast for Q2 growth as a whole are building, after the PMI tanked in May.
Supply chain disruptions providing a temporary boost to activity.
- In one line: Supply chain disruptions providing a temporary boost to activity.
- In one line: House price inflation to gradually ease over the rest of the year.
- In one line: Manufacturing growth will slow as front-running unwinds, but price pressures are building.
- In one line: Downward revision to 2025/26 borrowing leaves little net news, but higher inflation will boost borrowing in the year ahead.
- In one line: Limited fall in ex-petrol retail sales suggest consumption is slowing rather than collapsing.
- In one line: Early May sample period leaves confidence looking too rosy.
- In one line: Sharp output downturn leaves MPC more likely to hold in July.
- In one line: Inflation scotches a June hike, but most of the downside surprise was in erratic components that will rebound.
- In one line: In one line: Sharp payrolls fall will be revised much stronger, but with wages weakening too the MPC will stay on hold in June.
- In one line: A welcome bounce, as war risks continue to recede.
- In one line: A welcome bounce, as war risks continue to recede.
In one line: Poor, but risks are tilted towards an upward revision.
Clearer signs of precautionary stockpilling.
