Pantheon Publications

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade, January

Net trade set to drag heavily on growth amid a pre-tariff surge in imports.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

EM Asia Datanote: Core Industries, India, January

• In one line: Offsetting base effects all over the place; momentum is solid, otherwise.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: GDP, India, Q4

• In one line: A trade- and consumption-driven bounce; the economy is still operating below potential.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, February 2025

In one line: Consistent with a below-consensus EZ print on Monday.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Unemployment, Chile, January, 2025

• In one line: Retail sector remains strong, while industrial sector struggles in January.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

EZ Datanote: ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations, EZ, January & Unemployment, Germany, February

In one line: EZ inflation expectations ease back; further increases in German unemployment are on the way.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: State CPIs, Germany, February

In one line: Consistent with the national CPI undershooting the consensus.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, December

• In one line: Finally, back down to earth.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PM Datanote: Advance Inflation & INSEE Consumers' Spending, France, Feb/Jan

In one line: Inflation pulled lower by energy, but the core softened too; setback in spending after a strong finish to 2024.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, February 2025

• In one line: House prices rise again in February, but watch for a slowdown after April.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, January 2025

In one line: On track for a slowdown in Q1. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

China+ Datanote: Tokyo CPI, Japan, February

Tokyo headline inflation slows as energy subsidies restart; BoJ to stick to policy normalisation path

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 28 February 2025: Tokyo inflation slows on energy subsidies

Tokyo headline inflation slows as energy subsidies restart; BoJ to stick to policy normalisation path

Duncan WrigleyChina+

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 28 February 2025

A surprisingly fast start to 2025 for Philippine trade

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

February 2025 - U.K. Housing Watch

THE HOUSING MARKET REMAINS ROBUST...

• ...AND PRICES WILL RISE BY 4% IN 2025

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

3 March 2025 US Monitor Consumers will crack soon, but spending will rebound in February

• January’s fall in consumption was due to residual seasonality, bad weather and auto-specific issues.
• A February rebound is signalled by timely data on auto sales, consumer lending and restaurant visits.
• A mid-year lull in spending, as real income growth slows, is more likely than a sudden stop in Q1.

Samuel TombsUS

3 March 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's labour market still resilient, but not for long

• Brazil’s labour market remained resilient in January, at face value, but is showing some signs of cooling.
• The current account deficit increased in January, but the underlying picture remains benign.
• Foreign investment beat expectations, despite a difficult external and domestic backdrop.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

3 March 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor India's Q4 GDP bounce confirmed, on consumption and exports

• India’s Q4 GDP print was exactly in line wit expectations, at 6.2%, rebounding from 5.6%…
• …Consumption, mainly rural, continues to find its feet, while exports—especially services—are flying.
• The Philippines’ structural RRR cuts are likely over, but they are no substitute for lower TRR rates.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

3 March 2025 China+ Monitor Politburo signals continuity in policy approach ahead of Two Sessions

• China’s Politburo meeting on Friday signalled a ‘steady as she goes’ approach to economic policy.
• Tokyo consumer inflation fell in February, as energy subsidies brought down energy inflation.
• Fresh food inflation cooled due to seasonal factors, but overall food inflation is likely to pick up in H1.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

3 March 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ inflation likely undershot the consensus in February

• Eurozone headline and core inflation likely undershot the consensus in February.
• Today’s data should be the first clear sign that EZ services inflation is now falling, from a trend of 4%.
• EZ consumers’ spending on goods saw a slow start to 2025, but don’t write off Q1 just yet.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone