Net trade set to drag heavily on growth amid a pre-tariff surge in imports.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Offsetting base effects all over the place; momentum is solid, otherwise.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A trade- and consumption-driven bounce; the economy is still operating below potential.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Consistent with a below-consensus EZ print on Monday.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Retail sector remains strong, while industrial sector struggles in January.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: EZ inflation expectations ease back; further increases in German unemployment are on the way.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Consistent with the national CPI undershooting the consensus.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Inflation pulled lower by energy, but the core softened too; setback in spending after a strong finish to 2024.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: House prices rise again in February, but watch for a slowdown after April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Tokyo headline inflation slows as energy subsidies restart; BoJ to stick to policy normalisation path
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo headline inflation slows as energy subsidies restart; BoJ to stick to policy normalisation path
Duncan WrigleyChina+
A surprisingly fast start to 2025 for Philippine trade
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
THE HOUSING MARKET REMAINS ROBUST...
- ...AND PRICES WILL RISE BY 4% IN 2025
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Brazil’s labour market remained resilient in January, at face value, but is showing some signs of cooling.
- The current account deficit increased in January, but the underlying picture remains benign.
- Foreign investment beat expectations, despite a difficult external and domestic backdrop.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- India’s Q4 GDP print was exactly in line wit expectations, at 6.2%, rebounding from 5.6%…
- …Consumption, mainly rural, continues to find its feet, while exports—especially services—are flying.
- The Philippines’ structural RRR cuts are likely over, but they are no substitute for lower TRR rates.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Eurozone headline and core inflation likely undershot the consensus in February.
- Today’s data should be the first clear sign that EZ services inflation is now falling, from a trend of 4%.
- EZ consumers’ spending on goods saw a slow start to 2025, but don’t write off Q1 just yet.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone