Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- Oil output has barely budged in response to the jump in prices, with few signs of an upturn ahead.
- Medium-term futures prices have risen by far less than spot prices, and capital discipline is tighter.
- A slowdown in consumers’ spending looms, as the hit to real incomes from higher gas prices starts to bite.
- Brazilian Real — Rally pauses as policy risks rise
- Mexican peso — Strong fundamentals, but risks abound
- Colombian peso — Politics now the market driver
- The underlying strength in Vietnamese exports looks set to persist into the third quarter, at least…
- …But the monthly data at large suggest strongly that GDP growth, in reality, will likely cool in Q2.
- The fuel-price U-turn has yet to show in CPI; we’ve cut our 2026 call to 4.9% but raised 2027 to 3.6%.
- DM central banks are missing their inflation targets; the ECB seems most keen to rectify this.
- A higher inflation target would be no panacea for the ECB, faced with successive supply-side shocks.
- Our interest rate forecast is consistent with a real policy rate at zero by the middle of 2027.
- PMI services responses between the flash and final release were the most optimistic in five months.
- Political noise likely drove revisions, and underlying growth is probably still slowing.
- But the PMI tends to exaggerate growth slowdowns when uncertainty is high.
- In one line: Consumers and firms look solid in April even if some borrowing was front-running rate hikes.
In one line: Korea inflation rise in May makes July hike likely
- In one line: Commodity-price boost to two-way trade is finally here.
- In one line: Food drives the initial bounce-back.
- In one line: Manufacturing is finally starting to stabilise.
ASEAN manufacturing is finally starting to stabilise
Food drives the initial bounce-back in Indonesian inflation
Commodity-price boost to Indonesian two-way trade is finally here
ECB WILL TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO RISING INFLATION…
- …BUT HOW FAR WILL THE BANK GO?
LATAM’S DISINFLATION STORY IS BREAKING DOWN
- OIL, POLITICS AND FISCAL RISKS KEEP CENTRAL BANKS ON ALERT
- The jump in April job openings was driven by a sector where the first estimate usually is revised significantly.
- Other measures of openings have continued to trend down; low quits imply a real wage squeeze is ahead.
- We doubt that the recent acceleration in corporate profits signals a sharp cyclical upswing.
- US - NFP preview: the die is weighted toward a downside surprise
- EUROZONE - Inflation shock will sting real income growth in France in 2026
- UK - Corporate failures remain low, but Iran war will boost distress slightly
- CHINA+ - Korea’s chip-export bonanza allows BoK to focus on inflation risks
- EM ASIA - Thailand’s latest consumer stimulus will reshape—not re-energise—2026
- LATAM - Brazil’s economy enjoys solid Q1, but inflation clouds the outlook
- El Niño could complicate LatAm’s inflation outlook just as geopolitical risks keep energy prices elevated.
- Argentina stands to benefit, while Colombia faces the region’s largest inflation risk.
- Disruption to food, energy and logistics could widen macroeconomic divergences across the region.
- Indonesia’s small April trade surplus was due to seasonals; a C/A surplus in 2026 is now possible…
- …The big improvement in headline export growth was no fluke; the commodity lift will last till year-end.
- We’ve raised our 2026 inflation forecast to 3.4%, but also lowered our 2027 call to 2.7%.
- China’s urban-renewal plan has unduly excited stock investors; it implies a modest boost for home demand…
- …The focus is urban investment, unlike the resettlement policy, which directly creates demand.
- New BoK Governor Shin on Monday again signalled a likely rate hike; May inflation surged on energy costs.
- Eurozone core and headline inflation rose further inMay, both matching our forecasts.
- The ECB will hike by 25bp next week, and we still look for a back-to-back rate increase in July.
- The EZ’s inflation fever is now breaking a bit, but we still see a rebound to 3.5% by the end of the year.
- We see few signs of changing saving patterns since the Iran war started; households are rejigging assets.
- Strong mortgage approvals and corporate credit flows suggest some front-running of rate hikes.
- But strong April credit growth—after mortgage rates spiked—suggests underlying demand is firm.
