Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Lower oil prices bring temporary inflation relief, but core pressures remain persistent in Mexico.
- Banxico has limited room to ease while inflation is elevated and expectations remain vulnerable.
- Markets are underestimating geopolitical risk; the inflation outlook and easing path are even more fragile.
- German manufacturing fell in Q1, but survey data point to a robust end to the quarter and Q2 strength.
- Net trade in goods surged in Q1, but we suspect the boost was partially offset by a fall in inventories.
- Our nowcast models for Germany point to big upside risk to Q1 growth, but take them with a pinch of salt.
- We expect the final payrolls reading to show a 7K month-to-month drop in March.
- A small gain in LFS employment means the unemployment rate will hold steady at 5.2%.
- Wage inflation will drop close to the BoE Staff estimate of ‘inflation-target-consistent’ levels.
- In one line: Not as bad as we all thought.
In one line: New orders stung by surge in input prices.
In one line: Strong gain in core orders.
- In one line: Keeping calm and carrying on with a sensible pause.
RBI is keeping calm and carrying on with a sensible pause
Underlying capex still looks relatively weak.
- Real consumption likely rose 0.3% in February; unofficial data point to robust non-gas spending in March...
- ...But the lift to incomes from tax refunds will be over soon; lower stock prices will add to the headwinds.
- The February core PCE deflator likely rose 0.4%, due to residual seasonality and some volatile components.
- Brazil — Ceasefire triggers relief rally
- Chile — Upside support driven by oil-price reversal
- Peru — External drivers back in control
- The RBI stayed on hold, as expected, while its new CPI outlook already looks dated, post-ceasefire…
- …A smaller diesel-price hike is now likely, and food gains have peaked; we see 2026 CPI at 3.7%.
- Taiwan’s inflation fell more than expected in March; the CBC‘s red line looks secure, for now.
- US-Iran ceasefire takes the sting out of rising EZ rate expectations, but tightening remains our base case.
- Core orders in German manufacturing rose solidly in February, and surveys point to further upside.
- Retail sales in the Eurozone all but stalled in Q1, and the outlook for Q2 is poor too.
- Industrial production likely dropped in February, driven by falls in mining output and energy supply…
- ...But strong services activity will boost output growth, leaving GDP on track to rise by 0.2% in Q1.
- The fragile US-Iran ceasefire reduces the chances of a hike to Bank Rate this year, but uncertainties remain.
In one line: Downside risks are widening for Q2.
In one line: China’s big drop mainly due to global market volatility, rather than domestic economy
- In one line: The bigger jolt will come in April.
Oil surge leads to an immediate breach of the BSP’s target range
Recovering domestic demand will soon hit a brick wall
Probably providing a false read on services inflation.
- US - The March labor market data look worse beneath the surface
- EUROZONE - Further rise in price pressures will keep the SNB on the sidelines
- UK - Rundown of high saving rate can set a floor under spending in 2026
- CHINA+ - China’s profit turnaround meshes with strategic drive for high-tech
- EM ASIA - Inflation, not growth, is a bigger near-term issue for ASEAN factories
- LATAM - Credibility risks now dominate Colombia’s policy outlook
