Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- In one line: Slowing growth and easing price pressures skews risks towards rates on hold in 2026.
- In one line: Construction PMI likely too downbeat, but output still set to fall over the coming months.
- In one line:Car registrations resilient in May but demand will slow as higher borrowing costs bite.
- In one line: Easing price expectations and falling jobs raise the chances of the MPC keeping rates on hold.
In one line: Early days, but industry looks on track for a solid Q2.
In one line: Regular wage growth rose above 3% for three straight months
Consumption activity rebounded in April
- Household survey data signal a stable labor market, implying a high chance of downward payroll revisions.
- The recent recovery in consumer-facing payrolls is likely to peter out now tax refunds have been spent.
- The AI drag is intensifying gradually; all leading survey indicators of payrolls point to a renewed slowdown.
- Industrial output in Brazil enters Q2 solidly, supported by commodities and resilient demand.
- Manufacturing and capital goods continue to lag, highlighting weak capex and high real rates.
- Persistent inflation and tariff risks threaten to prolong industry’s uneven recovery in H2.
- The RBI’s twin worries, over fading growth and rising inflation, point to a continued rate standstill…
- …We’ve upped our 2026 growth call to 7.0%, but the details of the ‘strong’ Q1 GDP aren’t convincing.
- Philippine and Thai CPI surprised to the downside in May, as we predicted; the BSP is still likely to hike.
- Japanese consumer spending surged in April, albeit mainly due to tax changes that spurred light truck sales.
- Solid real wage growth is partly cushioning consumers from energy worries, however.
- Governor Ueda hinted on Wednesday at a June rate hike, stressing inflation risks over growth risks.
- A crash in Irish GDP stung EZ growth in Q1, but the trend ex-Ireland was firm before the US-Iran war.
- We see EZ GDP, ex-Ireland, increasing by 0.1% in Q2, before rising a touch quicker in Q3 and Q4, to 0.2%.
- A slowdown in consumption still lies ahead as growth in real incomes takes a hit.
- Activity data softened over the past week, suggesting underlying growth has slowed slightly.
- The DMP will give the MPC comfort that second- round inflation effects are failing to worsening.
- But survey measures of prices and wages continue to signal inflation persisting well above the 2% target.
- The jump in energy prices likely started to lift some core goods prices, but the peak will come in Q3.
- CPI primary rent and OER likely rose only modestly, as the slowdown in new rents feeds through.
- Residual seasonality pollutes the services price data; May data have been consistently soft since 2022.
- Markets favour Keiko Fujimori, but Peru’s run-off will still test confidence in institutional stability…
- …Inflation is heading north, leaving the next administration with less room for policy mistakes.
- Food prices eased in Colombia, but services, rents and utilities keep inflation pressures elevated overall.
- The outbound investment crackdown goes beyond brokers, foreshadowing greater economic control.
- Investors should be aware of the potential implications for assets from such measures in China‘s policy agenda.
- Hong Kong’s PMI partially recovered in May, thanks to Golden Week holiday demand as well as construction.
- Swiss inflation was stable at 0.6% in May; we expect it to stay within the 0-to-2% target band during 2027…
- …The SNB will hold rates this month and throughout 2026. Its next move will be a 25bp hike in Q1 2027.
- Revisions to Irish GDP suggest Eurozone GDP fell slightly in Q1, threatening a technical recession in H1.
- We expect CPI inflation to increase to 3.0% in May, from 2.8% in April.
- Airfares will recover, and last year’s vehicle-duty correction will boost recorded inflation.
- Motor fuel prices have peaked, but utility and food bills will push inflation to a peak of 3.6% in November.
Still no signs of fragility in the bullet train that is Vietnamese trade
Real sales growth continues to track softer in Q2
Small inflation uptick, but still uncomfortably above the SBV's ceiling
In one line: All set for a 25bp rate hike next week.
In one line: All set for a 25bp rate hike next week.
