Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- China exports slowed for third successive month in August, dragged down by low-tech shipments.
- US was largest drag on growth; monthly exports fell 12.8% seasonally adjusted, offsetting ASEAN's gains.
- Export growth is set to slow in H2 on the back of a weaker US economy and less stockpiling.
- Preliminary benchmarking indicates 911K fewer jobs were created in year to March; that’s a huge revision.
- Most of that downward revision likely reflects the initial overstatement of job creation at new businesses.
- The birth-death model is still make a big contribution today; payrolls have probably fallen over the summer.
- Headline inflation eases in Mexico, but sticky core services limit Banxico’s scope to ease.
- The Economic Package prioritises targeted capex, fiscal consolidation and sustained social spending.
- MXN strength and prudent debt management support stability; trade uncertainty restrains growth.
- Indonesia’s finance minister is out, introducing uncertainty in an area of policy that’s been sound…
- …Fortunately for Mr. Purbaya, the worst of the slump in public revenue growth should be over.
- Taiwanese exports moderate, but not as sharply as expected, as the impact of the AI boom prevails.
- A cyclical rise in tax revenues provides an incentive for political brinkmanship to continue in France.
- Industrial output signals upside risk to investment but how will consumers respond to falling incomes?
- Growth in France will drop to the bottom of the pile of the major four economies next year.
- We expect payrolls to fall by 10K in July and August, assuming the usual revisions.
- Vacancies are stable or recovering according to private-sector data; the official data will follow suit.
- Pay growth is moderating only slowly as high inflation expectations and stabilising jobs sustain wage gains.
- We think the core CPI rose by 0.4% in August, as pass-through from the tariffs intensified.
- Adobe’s Digital Price Index—a good guide to a segment of core goods prices—jumped in August.
- Prices for air travel and accommodation services are rebounding from Q2 weakness.
- Chile’s downside inflation surprise strengthens the case for a cautious 25bp policy rate cut today.
- Colombia’s inflation persists, as food and service components push the headline rate above 5%.
- BanRep remains cautious, with structural inflation drivers and fiscal reform clouding the policy outlook.
- Vietnam’s August export figures confirm that the front-loading to the US is well and truly over.
- Our proxy GDP gauge is holding steady from Q2 at 6.8%; ‘official’ growth rate will probably be higher.
- The household sector is still on the mend, finding greater support from the job market.
- The ECB will hold fire this week, as data has swung to the side of the hawks over the past few months.
- The confidence interval around a baseline of a stable deposit rate at 2% next year is widening.
- Rates will be stable or fall in the next six months; then the balance will shift towards no change or hikes.
- Gilt yields have soared, as yields have risen globally and the markets price in UK fiscal risk.
- Elevated inflation expectations partly explain why UK yields have reached their highest since 1998.
- We think market-based expectations are being suppressed by the RPI-CPI transition in 2030.
In one line: Down sharply again.
In one line: Solid production numbers, but net trade in goods remain under pressure.
In one line: Growth slows as tariff front-running disappears.
In one line: As we expected, but where was the Airbus-driven upward revision?
Philippine inflation has finally bottomed out
- In one line: Strong growth and stubborn price pressures will keep the MPC on hold for the rest of the year.
- In one line: The PMI inches up but still remains overly downbeat.
- In one line: Stubborn wage and price pressures should keep the MPC cautious, but falling employment is a building risk.
- In one line: Private car registrations should continue to rise as displacement demand drives sales.
