Pantheon Publications

24 June 2025 Eurozone Monitor PMI suggests no repeat of Q1's 0.6% EZ GDP growth in Q2

• The EZ PMI held steady in June, and averaged broadly the same in Q2 as in Q1… 
• ...But EZ GDP will not repeat its 0.6% growth in Q1; we look for GDP to stagnate this quarter. 
• Demand is recovering but, once tariff front-running ends, will likely correct; price pressures are easing.

24 June 2025 UK Monitor Slow growth and cooling price pressures, according to the PMI

• The PMI’s headline activity index rose in June but still signals unchanged quarter-to-quarter GDP in Q2…
• …But we think the PMI continues to underestimate activity and retain our call for GDP growth of 0.2%.
• The services output balance fell sharply in June, but that drop looks erratic; the MPC will wait for clarity.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 23 June 2025

A strong finish to India’s Q2, if June's flash PMIs hold

Global Datanote: Preliminary GDP, Japan, Q1

In one line: Japan’s GDP shrinks for the first time in a year, reinforcing the BoJ's wait-and-see stance.

China+ Datanote: Loan Prime Rates, China, June

In one line: China's commercial banks hold benchmark lending rates steady in June

Global Datanote: National CPI, Japan, May

In one line: Japan's core inflation surprised on the upside, but unlikely to sway BoJ into hiking mode

Global Datanote: Loan Prime Rates, China, June

In one line: BoJ slowed tapering pace for next fiscal year but stood pat on policy rates in June

Global Datanote: BoJ Decision, Japan, June

In one line: BoJ slowed tapering pace for next fiscal year but stood pat on policy rates in June

China+ Datanote: BoJ Decision, Japan, June

In one line: BoJ slowed tapering pace for next fiscal year but stood pat on policy rates in June

June 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

LEADING LABOR MARKET INDICATORS HAVE WORSENED…

THE FED WILL EASE IN SEP, BEFORE INFLATION PEAKS

EZ Datanote: Advance Consumer Confidence, Eurozone, June 2025

In one line: Recovery from March and April’s drops has ended already

EM Asia Datanote: Core Production, India, May

• In one line: Hit by free-falling electricity production.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence, France, June

In one line: Stable, but weak.

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, April 2025

In one line: A decent start to Q2. 

June 2025 - China+ Chartbook

• - CHINA’S FLAGGING GROWTH TO PROMPT POLICY TWEAKS
• - BOJ OPTS FOR PRAGMATIC MIDDLE PATH ON BOND-BUYING
• - BOK LIKELY TO EASE, DESPITE CURRENCY WORRY

23 June 2025 US Monitor Consumption looks vulnerable to the looming real-income shock

• Real income growth has already slowed significantly, and will grind to a halt as tariffs boost consumer prices.
• Spending growth likely will soften too; households’ balance sheets are less supportive than post-Covid.
• We expect growth in consumers’ spending to slow just 1% by Q4, down from nearly 3% in Q1.

23 June 2025 LatAm Monitor COPOM surprises with a final hike and signals a prolonged pause

• The COPOM defied consensus, raising the Selic to 15.00%, and signalled a hawkish extended pause.
• Persistent inflation and deanchored expectations are keeping Brazil’s policy tight despite activity slowing.
• Chile’s BCCh paused again; easing will depend on data amid resilient growth and global headwinds.

23 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Collapsing commodity demand weighs on Malaysian exports

• Malaysian exports unexpectedly fell by 1.1% in May, because of subdued commodity demand…
• …Weak crude oil futures and declining LNG demand will continue to drag on exports in H2.
• Thai stocks are slumping amid new political turmoil; instability is a known risk, so expect no quick fixes.

23 June 2025 China+ Monitor Japan's inflation still elevated, largely due to food inflation

• Japan’s headline national consumer inflation inched down in May, with energy inflation cooling.
• The new rice distribution system is star ting to yield results, but rice prices are still double the target range.
• The BoJ is likely to sit tight on interest rates this year, given the impact of higher US tariffs.

23 June 2025 Eurozone Monitor Week in preview: decent June surveys, and a rug-pull in Bunds?

• A firm commitment from Germany to spend 5% of GDP on defence would be a rug-pull for Bunds.
• Rising investor sentiment and calmness on the trade front point to decent June survey data this week.
• Early-Q2 data indicate upside risk to GDP growth in France, but we still look for just 0.1% q/q.