Pantheon Publications

12 December 2025 LatAm Monitor COPOM holds as disinflation makes headway; is a January cut plausible?

• Benign inflation prints in Brazil strengthen the case for
  easing, yet de-anchored expectations force caution.
• Activity is softening without collapsing, supporting a
  gradual, data-dependent transition towards Q1 cuts.
• But external volatility, fiscal uncertainty and currency
  risks keep the bar to a January rate cut set high.

12 December 2025 UK Monitor CPI preview 2: headline falling to 3.5%, but services up to 4.7%

• A food-price drop and tobacco-duty base effects should lower CPI inflation to 3.5% in November.
• We are tracking a chunky hotel-price rise, while a large airfares base effect will drop out of the figures...
• …So, we look for CPI services inflation to increase to 4.7% in November, from 4.5% in October.

12 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor SNB stands pat; we still expect it to stay on hold until early 2027

• The SNB held its policy rate at 0% at its final meeting of the year yesterday, as widely expected. 
• Next year will be boring for Swiss central bank watchers; we expect no change in rates until 2027. 
• The SNB thinks policy is expansionary; it will likely hike next, in 2027, as inflation nears the 1% mark.
    

12 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor "End" to BSP's easing will come when rates fall to 4.25%

• The BSP eased policy further this month, cutting its
  benchmark rate by a further 25bp to 4.50%…
• …We still see a terminal rate of 4.25%; growth
  worries are likely to continue to outweigh CPI risks.
• Indonesian sales growth looks set to hit a 20-month
  high in November, but it may also soon hit a ceiling.

Global Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, November, 2025

• In one line: Inflation under control, opening the door to gradual rate cuts.

PM Datanote: Inflation, Brazil, November, 2025

• In one line: Inflation under control, opening the door to gradual rate cuts.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, October 2025

In one line: Italian industry will be back on track after stumbling in October. 

UK Datanote: UK Report on Jobs Survey, November 2025

• In one line: Signs of stubborn wage growth despite weak jobs are widespread.

UK Datanote: Final PMI, November 2025

In one line: Budget circus hits sentiment, which can recover now the event has passed. 

UK Datanote: Construction PMI, November 2025

In one line: Catastrophic PMI saying conditions are as bad as during a full lockdown is hard to take at face value, but risks clearly lie towards output falls now.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, November 2025

• In one line: Pre-Budget chaos drags on consumer spending.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 10 December 2025

A clear, but fragile, recovery in Indonesian sales growth

10 December Global Monitor The SNB won't budge next year, even if inflation fall, below zero.

• US - Consumer resilience is ebbing as year-end approaches.
• EUROZONE - SNB to stand pat despite fall in inflation.
• UK - PMI shows growth stabilising after Budget chaos.
• CHINA+ - China's Politburo focus on domestic demand and structural issues.
• EM ASIA - RBI resumes its easing cycle, but this cut will likely be its last.
• LATAM - Brazil's Q3 GDP stalls as tight financial conditions bite.

11 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor Our nowcasts are in line with our forecasts for the big four

• The French and Spanish economies are losing pace in early Q4, according to the hard data.
• Italian data for October were weak, but carry-overs suggest a better Q4 than Q3 anyway.
• The spike in German wage growth was likely due to one-offs; it will pull up the EZ total.

11 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Equity Update November records, and cautious upside in 2026

• Brazil — Bull phase matures amid policy scrutiny
• Mexico — Underlying support holding
• Chile —  Testing resistance ahead of run-off election  

11 December 2025 UK Monitor MPC preview: cutting rates, and leaving the door open to one more

• We expect the MPC to vote five-to-four to cut Bank Rate at its meeting on December 18.
• Hawks will likely note supply-side weakness, and that the Budget raises medium-term inflation a little.
• The MPC will need to change its guidance for gradual further cuts as it approaches neutral.

11 December 2025 US Monitor Expect a brief skip in the Fed's easing cycle, not a long hiatus

The dots imply three regional Fed presidents who will
vote in 2026 disagreed with this meeting’s easing...

...But we reckon all the permanent voters expect to
ease in 2026; labor data will trigger March action.

Year-over-year growth in the ECI was stable at 3.6%
in Q3, but leading indicators signal a sharp fall soon. 

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Price Index, November 2025

• In one line: House price inflation should accelerate slightly now that the Budget is behind us. 

UK Datanote: UK Money & Credit, October 2025

• In one line: The money and credit data suggests few pre-Budget worries in October.

UK Datanote: UK Car Registrations, November 2025

• In one line: Holding up well in the face of chaotic Budget speculation through November.