Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- US - Four notes of caution over the recent upturn in payrolls
- EUROZONE - ECB set to end year-long policy hiatus this week with a 25bp hike
- UK - Money and credit review: few signs of a hit to activity from Iran war
- CHINA+ - China tightens oversight of outbound investment and capital flows
- EM ASIA - War noise unlikely to stop Vietnam’s exports from flying higher in Q3
- LATAM - El Niño adds new inflation risks to LatAm, but hit differs widely
- The plunge in NFIB hiring intentions in May casts doubt over the recent turnaround in payrolls.
- Capex intentions also are very depressed, suggesting large parts of the economy are struggling.
- May’s jump in existing home sales probably is a false dawn: demand is too weak for a sustained recovery.
- Lower electricity tariffs and softer food prices pushed Mexico’s headline inflation back into target range.
- Persistent services inflation and housing costs continue to delay a sustained downward trend.
- Oil prices, USMCA uncertainty and El Niño keep inflation risks tilted upward.
- Taiwan’s exports destroyed calls for stable growth, soaring by 51.7% in May, despite the Iran war.
- We are upgrading our full-year GDP growth forecast to 9.6%, even higher than 2025’s pace.
- Inflation breached the CBC’s 2% “red line” in May, but we are still not expecting a discount rate hike.
- China’s May export growth surged on the back of chip exports, largely thanks to higher prices.
- Shipments to non-traditional markets are more than offsetting falling trade with the US.
- Oil import volumes dropped again, as refiners responded to crushed margins by curbing output.
- A leap in construction boosted German industry in April; core manufacturing is still lagging the surveys.
- Energy-intensive industry in Germany is rebounding, and relative PPI trends point to further gains.
- Nowcast models point to downside risk to German GDP growth in Q2, but it’s still early days.
- We expect payrolls to fall by 15K month-to-month in May after surveys deteriorated.
- The headline unemployment rate should hold steady at 5.0% in April.
- Wage inflation will continue to ease further into the MPC’s inflation-target-consistent range.
- In one line: Uncertainty hits hiring plans in May, but sentiment is likely better now than the REC suggests.
- The effective tariff rate has fallen sharply recently and pass-through to consumers likely is now complete.
- The lift to core PCE inflation from tariffs probably will fall to zero by early 2027, from about 0.6pp in April…
- …But the fresh shock from the war with Iran means core inflation will remain elevated this year.
- Colombia’s inflation pressures are broadening, delaying further progress towards BanRep’s target…
- …Housing, services and food are keeping Colombian inflation elevated despite restrictive monetary policy.
- Chile’s benign CPI suggests the oil-price pass-through is limited and largely contained, for now.
- The ECB will hike this week, commencing a modest tightening as the US-Iran war drives up inflation.
- An upgrade to the ECB’s 2027 inflation forecast likely will be the main hawkish flash point this week.
- The ECB, faced with the risk of doing too little or too much in light of rising inflation, prefers the latter.
In one line: Strong trade surplus likely offsets valuation drag on China’s FX reserves
In one line: China’s RatingDog composite PMI signals faster Q2 GDP growth; services PMI lifted by holiday demand
In one line: Hong Kong PMI partially recovers on Golden Week tourism demand and construction.
In one line: Korea’s WDA export growth accelerates further on rising chip demand.
In one line: China’s RatingDog PMI reinforces NBS evidence of softer industrial production and export growth in May
In one line: Korea’s manufacturing activity hit a 5 year high on precautionary stock-building
In one line: Holiday services demand lifts China's non-manufacturing activity, while construction activity recovers slightly
In one line: China’s official PMI weighed down by May holiday disruption and payback from March’s overshoot.
In one line: A setback, but not enough to reverse recent strength.
