In one line: June’s increase will more than reverse in July.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: German unemployment rate won’t hold steady for much longer; inflation expectations likely to continue to fall.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Pointing to downside risks for GDP in Q2.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Pointing to downside risks for GDP in Q2.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Expect a further rise in food inflation in the July report.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Export growth probably will buckle again in Q3.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Post-export-front-loading clouds continue to darken.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Post-export-front-loading clouds for ASEAN continue to darken
Indonesian export growth probably will buckle again in Q3
Expect a further rise in Indonesian food inflation in the July report
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Caixin PMI concurs with official index in showing manufacturing activity rebound
Duncan WrigleyGlobal
China's Caixin PMI, Korea's PMI and Japan's Tankan point to manufacturers' measured relief at easing trade tensions
Duncan WrigleyChina+
INCREASED GEOPOLITICAL RISK…
- …FORCING SOME CENTRAL BANKS TO MOVE TO THE SIDELINES
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- US - Expect soft June payrolls, and yet another set of downward revisions
- EUROZONE - June’s EZ inflation rise will more than reverse in July and August
- UK - Payroll data have gone haywire; job growth is likely improving
- CHINA+ - BoJ to sit tight as stagflation risk rears its ugly head
- EM ASIA - Hoping we’re not jinxing it…we rescind our call for SBV cuts in 2025
- LATAM - Banxico signals slower data-driven easing, as inflation risks persist
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Growth momentum is fading in Chile as temporary drivers wane and consumption stabilises.
- Industrial production is still strong, led by mining, but job-market weakness remains a threat.
- Political polarisation and election uncertainty are rising, posing new risks to policy and capex.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI deteriorated further in June, and all signs point to more near-term falls.
- Indonesian export growth is in for a rockier H2, in spite of evidence of stabilising demand from China.
- Consumer sectors were to blame for India’s poor May IP; that’s a double whammy for the economy.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Headline inflation edged up to the ECB’s 2% target in June, as energy deflation unwound a touch.
- Lower energy and core inflation will pull the rate down to 1.8% in July, where it will stay in August.
- This further drop in inflation over the summer should be enough for a 25bp rate cut in September.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect CPI inflation to tick up to 3.5% in June from 3.4% in May, 0.1pp higher than the MPC expects.
- Surging food prices—the biggest three-month rise in two years—and motor fuel base effects boost inflation.
- Hot weather and a likely late CPI collection date pose upside risks to clothes prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumer-facing industries are buckling.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Consumer-facing industries are buckling.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
