Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- China’s March credit data, albeit soft overall, points to a tentative private credit revival in select areas.
- Rising pre-existing home sales likely drove mortgage demand; bottoming out is happening albeit slowly.
- Policy-driven infrastructure investment probably supported improving underlying corporate credit.
- In Q1, the Winter Olympics and fiscal support soften the hit to Italian consumption from the energy shock.
- EU recovery funds will help support Italian GDP growth this year as domestic demand slows.
- We lower our forecast for EZ GDP growth in Q1 and Q2, by 0.1pp in each quarter, to 0.2%.
- Borrowing costs have jumped since our last gilt market update, as the Iran war boosts inflation fears.
- We think yields have overshot fair pricing and will fall, although more so at the short than long end.
- Higher-for-longer oil prices and rising political risk mean the curve will steepen in 2026.
HOUSE PRICES UNCHANGED IN JANUARY...
- ...BUT WAR IN IRAN WILL HIT SENTIMENT HARD IN 2026
Further reason to expect a consumer slowdown.
Soft core increase shows domestically-generated inflation in check.
- In one line: Soft core increase shows domestically-generated inflation in check.
In one line: Industrial production likely fell over Q1.
In one line: Lifted by soaring energy inflation, but the core and food will rise too in due course.
- A record jump in gas prices hugely boosted the CPI in March; expect a further 0.2pp hit in April.
- The core CPI likely will be lifted in April by a rebound in used auto prices and a catch-up increase in rents...
- ...But the fading tariff boost and slowing rent rises will drag down inflation in H2, despite higher oil prices.
- Fuel and food drove inflation in Brazil, but broader price pressures are now beginning to emerge.
- Disinflation persists in parts of the basket, but momentum is slowing and becoming uneven.
- The COPOM will continue easing cautiously, as higher inflation and risks limit scope for aggressive cuts.
- China’s first rise in producer prices in 41 months was partly due to the global energy-price shock...
- ...But it does not indicate an improvement in demand fundamentals nor the exit from low inflation.
- Producer prices for consumer goods continue to fall, while core consumer inflation is subdued.
- Data out to February show that Spain’s growth streak was faltering even before the energy shock.
- Industrial production, retail sales and construction all likely declined over Q1.
- But record-high employment and fiscal support likely kept growth from grinding to a halt last quarter.
- The temporary two-week ceasefire is already under strain, suggesting energy prices will remain high...
- ...and the data-flow since the start of the Iran war has been fractionally hawkish, in our view.
- But the MPC will wait for more clarity before jumping, so we expect a hold in April and a rate hike in June.
Consumption already weak before the energy shock.
In one line: Spanish industry was performing poorly even before the energy shock.
In one line: Industrial production fell in Q1, but net trade in goods rose sharply.
- China has ramped up energy production from alternative sources in the wake of the Iran war.
- China has seen limited trade spillover; East Asian PMIs show a common theme of higher oil-driven input costs.
- Hong Kong’s PMI plunged on war uncertainty, with price pressures yet to feed through.
In one line: Decline will be exacerbated over the coming months.
- February data imply consumers’ spending likely rose by only about 1% in Q1...
- ...The looming real income squeeze and low confidence point to broadly flat spending in Q2.
- Core PCE inflation will be lower by year-end, despite higher energy prices, as the tariff uplift fades.
