Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- The ECB stands pat, despite lowering its headline and core inflation forecast for 2027; why?
- A more balanced growth outlook and a relatively high neutral rate mean the ECB is happy, for now.
- Has the bar for easing been lifted or is the risk of a Q4 cut now higher? It could be both, actually.
- We expect the MPC to vote 7-to-2 vote to keep Bank Rate on hold at next week’s policy meeting.
- Rate setters are focused on inflation which is proving persistent, while job falls should ease.
- We look for rate setters to slow QT to £70B a year from October, with sales skewed to shorter durations.
In one line: Held back by a drop in energy.
In one line: Not as bad as in France, Q3 will still be decent.
- In one line: Improvement in producer deflation appears mainly driven by short-term factors, more than policy yet
In one line: China's producer deflation improvement mainly driven by short-term factors; consumer price fall is due to food prices, with core inflation rising
- In one line: BCCh holds fire, flags sticky core inflation and need for more data before resuming cuts.
- In one line: Job falls ease sharply but spare capacity is still building in the labour market.
- In one line: Retail spending can power another solid quarter of economic growth in Q3.
- In one line: Headline inflation eases, but core remains sticky.
- In one line: Headline inflation eases, but core remains sticky.
Labor demand and capex plans still depressed.
- Retailers’ margins began to buckle in August under tariff pressure; expect a significant squeeze ahead.
- Producer prices for goods are still rising in response to tariffs, but the underlying cost picture is benign.
- The core PCE deflator likely rose briskly in August, but no sign of the services price surge implied by the ISM.
- Brazil — Rally on easing inflation, election optimism
- Mexico — Upwards amid cautious optimism
- Colombia — Nears 13-year high on broad gains
- China's August producer deflation improved, led by steel and coal, likely due to reviving building demand.
- Anti-price-war policies are likely to have more effect in traditional sectors than in high-tech ones.
- Core consumer inflation is weak but gradually rising, indicative of the slow repair in domestic demand.
- Industrial production fell in Spain in July, though less than in France, while it rose in Italy and Germany.
- EZ industry likely eked out some growth at the start of Q3 and we look for a better Q3 than Q2.
- Services production fell in June, however, and surveys point to further weakness in Q3.
- We expect CPI inflation to nudge up to 3.9% in August from 3.8% in July, but only just on the rounding.
- Stronger food, motor fuel and hotel prices—boosted by an Oasis concert—should offset weaker airfares.
- We expect CPI inflation to peak at 4.1% in September, up from 4.0% previously, above the MPC’s 4.0% call.
In one line: Manufacturing on track to boost growth in Q3.
A quiet start to Q3, but Philippine sales are still sliding
- US - Payrolls warrant much looser policy, but 50bp next week is unlikely
- EUROZONE - Swiss inflation details are dovish; SNB rate cut to -0.25% still on
- UK - GDP likely unchanged month-to-month in July
- CHINA+ - China’s exports lose steam on low-techs; slump in US exports persists
- EM ASIA - Confident BNM holds fire on further easing, following July cut
- LATAM - Mexico’s economy holds steady, but capex weakness and trade risks persist
