Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- US - Lackluster payrolls, but not alarming enough for a January easing
- EUROZONE - ECB preview: EZ policy rates to stay on hold all the way until 2027
- UK - CPI preview 2: headline falling to 3.5%, but services up to 4.7%
- CHINA+ - China’s domestic demand still in the slow lane as policy boost fades
- EM ASIA - “End” to BSP’s easing will come when rates fall to 4.25%
- LATAM - Kast’s mandate signals Chile’s return to discipline, and market confidence
- Private payrolls are no longer slowing and the jump in unemployment was mostly due to the shutdown.
- Unemployment ex-temporary layoffs, however, is above its pre-Covid norm, and wider slack is building.
- Some indicators of hiring indicators have improved recently, but layoff plans also have picked up.
- Broad-based weakness in industry and services offsets agricultural strength in Brazil…
- …Fiscal support is cushioning the slowdown; COPOM patience pushes back easing expectations to late Q1.
- Policy remains near neutral in Peru, as inflation is still anchored and growth is running close to potential.
- India’s PMIs continued to roll over in December, altogether pointing to a Q4 GDP growth U-turn…
- …The future output sub-index is going from bad to worse, adding weight to our downbeat 2026 view.
- A plunge in gold imports drove the shrinkage of the trade gap last month, but US exports are bouncing.
- The BoJ’s regional branches report steady wage-hike expectations for 2026, except at small firms.
- Japan’s December flash PMIs see manufacturing activity reviving but cost pressures mounting.
- The Q4 Tankan finds severe labour shortages, but these have yet to spur an uptick in broad wage growth.
- The EZ composite PMI slid to a three-month low but still points to GDP rising more in Q4 than Q3.
- The detail indicates stronger employment growth and so a still-tight labour market…
- ...As well as rising input costs and greater inflation pressures in 2026.
- Chaos running up to the November Budget hit hiring, but by less than payrolls suggest.
- Payrolls will be revised better, vacancies are rising, and jobless claims are down on a year earlier.
- The MPC has enough evidence to cut on Thursday, but stubborn pay growth will keep it cautious.
Likely a high watermark for now.
Manufacturing capex and hiring likely to remain very weak
- In one line: Historic leap in gold imports in October unwinds dramatically.
- Core CPI inflation likely fell to 2.9% in November, slightly below consensus, from 3.0% in September.
- Auto prices have remained unaffected by tariffs; increases in other goods prices have slowed.
- The rebound in airline fares probably has petered out; rent increases likely continue to slow gradually.
- A landslide election resets Chile’s political cycle, restoring a pro-market-reform agenda.
- Early fiscal consolidation, tax reform and deregulation will test credibility and sustain the market rally.
- The benign macro backdrop and BCCh easing create a narrow window to lift capex and potential growth.
- China’s November activity data point to slowing goods consumption but steady services spending.
- Still-falling fixed asset investment has yet to benefit from the quasi-fiscal-stimulus funding support.
- Policymakers will proceed cautiously on tackling the reasons for the weak demand, amid bright exports.
- Our spot forecasts for EZ GDP have outperformed the consensus and the ECB so far this year…
- …We have improved our EZ inflation forecasts by incorporating our new energy model.
- We misjudged the dovishness of the new SNB Chairman, affecting our forecasting track record.
- Official house prices fell in September, and we think activity will remain weak in Q4…
- ...But the private-sector house price indices are rising again, and surveyors are becoming more optimistic.
- So, we look for house price inflation of 3.0% in Q4 2026, up from 2.25% in Q4 2025.
In one line: A decent start to Q4.
China's November activity data show goods consumption softening and fixed asset investment worsening
Upstream food price pressures in India are reviving more noticeably
- In one line: Muddied by residual seasonality, but vegetable-price pressures are reviving.
- In one line: Muddied by residual seasonality, but vegetable-price pressures are reviving.
