Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- We think headline CPI inflation would soar to 6% if oil prices hit $150, with core PCE inflation rising to 31/2%.
- The jump implies a hit to GDP of just over 1pp, probably lifting the unemployment rate to about 5%.
- We think the Fed would wait until next spring to deliver the 75bp easing we expect this year in our base case.
- Peru’s inflation is rising on supply shocks; anchored expectations allow BCRP to maintain a cautious tone.
- Activity remains resilient and near potential, though energy disruption and external risks cloud the outlook.
- Policy will likely stay on hold, as uncertainty limits the scope for action, at least over the next six months.
- Bank Indonesia held rates yesterday, as expected, and no longer pledged to find room for more cuts.
- We lower our estimate for India’s current account deficit this year to -3.0% of GDP, due to the oil crisis.
- Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports for January- to-February point to 49.7% growth in electronics.
- Surging energy prices will hit disposable income growth and consumers’ spending this year…
- …But household balance sheets are strong; consumers will keep spending.
- We’re lowering our growth forecasts for this year by 0.3pp, and by 0.1pp next year as spending slows.
- Inflation will peak at over 5% if oil prices rise to $150 per barrel, requiring hikes to Bank Rate.
- An oil price below $125 leaves the MPC just enough room to hold rates, but it is borderline in some cases.
- The MPC will need clarity over energy supplies in late summer to be sure a second price spike is avoided.
Little to cheer for homebuilders.
Underlying manufacturing output still looks anemic.
- In one line: Big short-term downside risks to the deficit due to the Iran war.
- FOMC participants will lift their Q4 forecasts for both core PCE inflation and the unemployment rate.
- The median participant likely will still expect 25bp easing this year, but risks are skewed to no cuts.
- We still look for 75bp easing, but have pushed back our forecast for the first cut to September.
- Economic activity in Brazil began the year on a solid footing, but the upturn is still uneven.
- Higher oil prices improve the external balance but risk reigniting inflation pressures.
- The COPOM faces a delicate balance between stabilising growth and preserving inflation credibility.
- China’s activity data for the first two months of this year paint a brighter picture than we expected...
- ...But stronger consumption is largely a temporary effect of higher spending during the extended holiday.
- Policy-supported infrastructure investment rebounded earlier than we expected; property sector is still weak.
- The conflict in the Middle East pits energy prices and the CHF in a tug of war over Swiss imported inflation.
- A prolonged conflict would push headline CPI to the middle of the SNB’s inflation target range this year.
- The SNB will leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday, and also throughout 2026.
- Erratic falls in equipment manufacturing and mining kept GDP unchanged month-to-month in January.
- We lower our forecast for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q1 to 0.2%, from 0.3% previously.
- War in Iran is a serious downside risk to activity, but we expect slower growth rather than a sudden stop.
China's consumer spending was boosted by longer holiday
infrastructure investment rebounds thanks to policy support
Industrial output lifted by export demand
Iran war forcing an upgrade to our 2026 India WPI forecast to 5%
- In one line: Households thought weaker inflation trends would be only temporary, and expectations will jump sharply now energy prices have surged.
- In one line: Higher energy costs will weigh on the trade balance.
- In one line:January disappointment partly driven by erratic sectors that will rebound, but we shave our Q1 growth call to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
In one line: Higher energy costs will make a bad situation worse.
In one line: On track for 2% by May.
