Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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In one line: BoJ on hold amid oil shock risks and divided inflation views
Malaysian headline export growth in Q1 still up from Q4, despite February miss
Inflation at bay, for now
In one line: The ECB is no longer 'in a good place.'
In one line: The ECB is no longer 'in a good place.'
Japan's exports slow due to holiday calendar effects
Chip and electrical machinery shipments rise
- Higher gas prices look set to reduce real household incomes by roughly $15B a month.
- Tax refunds will boost incomes by about $10B year-over-year in February to April, but taper off thereafter.
- Bigger refunds also will do little to help lower income households hit hardest by higher gas prices.
- Brazil’s rate cut marks the start of the easing cycle, but the inflation outlook has become more uncertain.
- External shocks and oil prices will curb disinflation, reinforcing the need for gradual policy adjustment.
- The COPOM is keeping its options open, but high uncertainty limits scope for faster rate cuts ahead.
- Malaysian current average Q1 expor ts are growing by 15.1%, meaning Q1 GDP will likely be strong…
- …Inflation was held at bay in Februar y but will now likely rise, because of higher crude oil prices.
- Taiwan’s central bank left rates on hold, and seems to be too sanguine about growth in 2026.
- The BoJ held the policy rate yesterday, unsurprisingly given the ever-changing oil-price situation.
- Governor Ueda is keeping options open, amid different views on inflation among voting members.
- Our base case is a July rate hike, assuming oil prices fall in the coming months; but April is not ruled out.
- Ms. Lagarde struck a balanced tone, and the ECB moved ahead of the curve with its new forecasts…
- …Yet we think policymakers have made up their minds; hikes are coming, unless growth collapses.
- The SNB left rates at 0.0%. It will use FX intervention to target inflation. The bar to negative rates is high.
- The MPC left Bank Rate unchanged at its March meeting, with a surprising unanimous vote.
- Guidance shifted towards a neutral stance, from being biased towards cuts in February.
- The bulk of the minutes leaned hawkishly in nature, and we now see the bar to rate hikes as lower than before.
- The median FOMC member still expects to ease policy by 25bp this year, unchanged from December.
- The new, higher forecasts for core PCE inflation are plausible, but those for stable unemployment are not.
- PPI data show retailers have passed on all the tariff costs to consumers; margins back on track.
- Brazil — Election race tightens as fiscal risks mount
- Mexico — Fiscal push meets market volatility
- Colombia — Fragmentation sharpens electoral maths
- Oil at $150 should pose no urgent CPI risk to India; fiscally, it’s better placed to manage this shock…
- …Main threat would be higher imported inflation from late-2026, as the CA deficit would blow up.
- Indonesia could see an 11% rise in subsidised fuel prices this year—more than in 2022—with $150 oil.
- China faces the likely prospect of a modest bump in consumer inflation from the oil-price surge...
- ...Soft pork prices are likely to partly offset higher energy costs; but producer inflation could swing dramatically.
- Japan would be more vulnerable to an oil price at $150 per barrel, forcing an early BoJ rate hike.
- EZ inflation is headed for just under 3% by May; the ECB will hike in response, likely in June and July.
- The ECB will justify higher rates by the need to move interest rates to the higher end of neutral.
- History warns against hiking into oil-price shocks, but the ECB will believe it can pull it off, again.
- We expect the data flow to soften as the implications of the war in Iran feed into surveys.
- But the PMI held up for two months after Russia’s invasion in 2022; the housing market will react faster.
- The MPC’s focus on spare capacity means the job data will be crucial for forecasting the path for rates.
Electronic exports in Singapore continue to boom
- US - Consumers look less resilient going into the energy price squeeze
- EUROZONE - Three scenarios for the ECB as a new energy shock hits
- UK - MPC preview: Bank Rate on hold and more cautious guidance
- CHINA+ - China’s low inflation cushions against energy-price shock
- EM ASIA - EA activity heap maps; major exporters still outperforming
- LATAM - Benign inflation in Brazil, but oil shock clouds COPOM outlook
