A few more months of modest Thai deflation on the cards
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Rising car registrations signals recovering underlying economic activity.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The Construction PMI will continue to recover as tariff uncertainty fades and Government investment soars.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Another bleak construction PMI read.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Q2 was a quarter to forget in French manufacturing; Spain is looking better.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Poor, but falling turnover at odds with the surveys.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Philippine inflation still comfortably below the BSP’s range
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Happy days as growth improves and inflation slows; the MPC could welcome the news with another cut in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Rebounding employment expectations suggest inflation pressure will remain stubborn.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: June’s downward revisions to the PMI’s sub-indices were likely driven by oil prices, sentiment will continue to improve.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Falling saving flows and rising corporate borrowing point to solid economic growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices fall in June but returning buyer demand will push up prices soon.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Better balanced growth after revisions bodes well.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
HOUSE PRICES COLLAPSE IN APRIL...
- ...BUT THE RECOVERY IS ALREADY UNDERWAY
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Durable and capital goods output fell sharply in Brazil, highlighting weakness in domestic demand.
- Business sentiment and PMIs deteriorated further in June, indicating weaker output in coming quarters.
- Stable inflation and anchored expectations give BCRP room to stay neutral amid external volatility.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Thai household debt has shrunk for the first time in over 20 years, but its ratio to GDP is still very high…
- …Consumer NPLs resumed their rise in Q1 after a Q4 stall; bad initial news for “You Fight, We Help”.
- Philippine inflation inched up in June; the low-CPI environment is yet to lift confidence meaningfully.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Tariffs will likely dominate this week; will Mr. Trump stick or twist in the negotiations with the EU?
- The near-term outlook for German manufacturing is better than what is implied by factory orders in May.
- EZ industrial production likely fell in May, reversing the jump in late Q1, ahead of US tariffs.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A range of soft and hard data last week supported our call that the economy is rebounding from a soft patch.
- Fading uncertainty, and recovery after payback from tariff and tax front-running, help growth improve.
- The DMP shows the pace of disinflation easing too, so we still look for only one more rate cut this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
