Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Inflation expectations show waning faith in the MPC’s ability to hit 2% inflation.
- In one line: Consumer spending growth has slowed only a little since the Iran war started.
- In one line: Political drama likely weighed on the RICS in May, but underlying activity remains weak.
- In one line: GDP still on track to grow 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, despite unwinding fuel hoarding and a doctor's strike cutting output in April.
- In one line: High energy costs begin to feed through to core import price inflation.
- In one line: Mean-reversion up in food inflation should now start to plateau.
- In one line: Mean-reversion up in food inflation should now start to plateau.
Malaysian spending feels the impact of the Middle East shock
- In one line: Food and utilities keep inflation elevated.
- In one line: Food and utilities keep inflation elevated.
- In one line: Inflation improves, but the balance of risks remains hawkish.
- In one line: Inflation improves, but the balance of risks remains hawkish.
- May PPI data showed building upstream goods price pressures and a pick-up in underlying services prices.
- Core PCE inflation likely rose 3.4%, from 3.3% in April, it now looks set to take until January to return to 3.0%...
- ...So we are pushing our forecast for when the FOMC will resume easing policy to March, from December.
- Food and electricity prices pushed inflation higher in Brazil, limiting room for further monetary easing…
- …Inflation expectations are still rising, as weather and geopolitical risks threaten further inflation pressures.
- Softer inflation supports a rate pause in Peru, but risks increasingly point away from further easing.
- Two Malaysian states are now holding elections, thus raising calls for a general election...
- ...and implying changes to fuel subsidies or an expansion of the tax base are likely off the table.
- This probably won’t move bond yields, but it reduces fiscal headroom and damages credibility.
- China’s broad credit growth slowed further in May, indicative of sluggish credit demand.
- The fiscal deposit drawdown points to construction activity likely rebounding in May.
- The producer inflation rise is cost-push and unlikely to turn into high consumer inflation, given weak demand.
- The SNB will leave rates on hold throughout 2026, unlike its neighbouring central bank, the ECB.
- The SNB’s Q2 projections for inflation in the medium term will be slightly higher than before.
- We expect the Chairman to reiterate the SNB’s willingness to curb the strength of the CHF.
- GDP is still on track to rise by 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, above the MPC’s forecast, 0.1%.
- Inflation expectations increasingly look de-anchored, suggesting second-round inflation effects will kick in.
- The MPC will hold Bank Rate while standing ready to act, but our call for a July hike looks shaky.
In one line: The ECB will hike again, but when?
