Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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EZ ECONOMY SLOWS AS TARIFF HIKES START TO BITE…
- …BUT OUR CALL FOR A SEPTEMBER RATE CUT IS NOW ON LIFE SUPPORT
- QCEW data up to Q4 2024 imply payrolls have been overestimated substantially; Q1 data will be weak too...
- ...But QCEW data are revised too; the preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision is usually too downbeat.
- The birth-death model has been too generous again; unauthorized workers also will be removed from the data.
- The BSP eased policy further yesterday, by 25bp, cutting the TRR rate to 5.00%, as widely expected…
- …But its rhetoric was much less dovish; Governor Remolona now thinks the rate is in the “sweet spot”.
- We continue to see one more cut, but this is unlikely to come until December, after the Q3 GDP report.
- The BoK left the policy rate unchanged yesterday, citing household-debt worries.
- The Bank is probably also seeking to avoid upsetting the US with a rate cut which could weaken the KRW.
- A likely government housing-supply plan and Fed rate cut in September should allow a BoK rate cut in Q4.
- The acceleration in money supply growth has faded, but it still signals solid underlying GDP growth.
- Surveyed EC selling price expectations rose in services but fell further in food.
- The Swiss economy came down to Earth in Q2 amid wild swings in net trade and inventories.
- The yield curve has steepened sharply since our last gilt market update in April, driven by higher real rates.
- A reduction in the pace of QT from October has the potential to support the long end at the margin.
- Acute fiscal risks mean we raise our year-end target for yields across the curve.
China's industrial profits still falling in July
- In one line:The Chancellor will still have to raise taxes in October despite borrowing matching official forecasts.
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence to stay rangebound for the rest of the year.
- In one line: Manufacturing activity looks subdued but stable, it should recover in H2.
Jump in underlying orders looks unsustainable.
- We look for a mere 75K rise in payrolls, despite the rebound in stock prices and decline in tariff uncertainty.
- Reliable surveys of hiring intentions have remained weak; consumers report worsening job availability.
- A rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% in August is likely too, given the latest continuing claims data.
- Tier-one cities are leading another round of targeted residential property market easing in China.
- The goal is stabilisation, however, rather than returning to solid growth, so expect an L-shaped recovery.
- Industrial profits barely improved in July amid excess supply; manufacturing profits are rising though.
- GfK consumer confidence in Germany sank in September, but income expectations still look fine.
- All eyes on core inflation in France and Spain for signs of a downside surprise for the EZ print.
- Unemployment in Germany likely rose in August, but the IAB survey points to better times ahead.
- Cautious guidance and strain on long-dated gilts suggest the MPC will slow the pace of QT.
- We expect rate-setters to opt for a reduced pace of £70B-per-year for the next 12 months from October.
- Level of reserves in the system is high, but use of the short-term repo facility indicates demand for liquidity.
In one line: Grim, and little scope for near-term improvement.
- US - We think a September easing will be the first of many
- EUROZONE - Germany is balancing on the edge of recession and recovery
- UK - Week in review: August rate cut looks increasingly like a mistake
- CHINA+ - Japan’s inflation elevated, with no easy cure for rice-price headache
- EM ASIA - BI’s urgency to cut faster since July in context; expect at least one more
- LATAM - Our LATAM team is on leave this week, publication will resume on Sep 2nd
- Tariff revenues crept up by just $2B to $32B in August, but likely will reach $45B soon.
- Tariffs have risen this month; imports from high tariff nations will rebound; the de minimis exemption will end.
- We doubt the jump in underlying durable goods orders in July is a sign of things to come.
- Thai exports beat expectations in July, but US front-running will end soon and we see little else to cheer.
- Singapore’s July’s CPI was soft, but it will take a lot more than this to convince the MAS to ease again.
- Taiwan retail sales fell again in July, as discretionary spending remains under pressure.
