Pantheon Publications

PM Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, November

Beginning to turn the corner, but the recovery will be slow.

US

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, October 2023

In one line:  A tough start to Q4.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Current Account, Eurozone, October 2023

In one line: The start of a more sustained climb?

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, November 2023

• In one line: Sharp decline in inflation not merely due to some of its noisy components.

Samuel TombsGlobal

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, November 2023

• In one line: Sharp decline in inflation not merely due to some of its noisy components.

Samuel TombsUK

China+ Datanote: PBoC Policy Decision, China, December

China keeps lending rates steady

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 20 DECEMBER 2023

China keeps lending rates steady; Japan's exports shrink for the first time in 3 months

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, January 2024

In one line: The start of a more sustained climb?

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 December 2023 Global Monitor Developed Central Banks are too Cautious on Inflation

• U.S. - The Fed is Done; Inflation Undershoot will Trigger Easing in Q1
• EUROZONE- ECB Pushes Back Against H1 Rate-Cut Predictions
• U.K. - MPC Likely to Wait Until May to Cut Rates
• CHINA+ - China’s Recovery Makes Glacial Progress in November
• EM ASIA - Indonesian Imports Will Continue to Outperform Exports Next Year
• LATAM - Milei Starts Working Hard; Chile Rejects the New Constitution

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

PM Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, November

Probably an overshoot, but a steady increase in single-family starts lies ahead.

US

Global Datanote: Economic activity index, Brazil, October, 2023

• In one line: Economic activity is grinding to a halt.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global

PM Datanote: Economic activity index, Brazil, October, 2023

• In one line: Economic activity is grinding to a halt.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, December

• In one line: Manufacturing output likely has further to fall. 

UK

Global Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, November 2023

In one line: Drop confirmed. Inflation will rebound in December, but what happens in January?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, November 2023

In one line: Drop confirmed. Inflation will rebound in December, but what happens in January?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

China+ Datanote: BoJ Policy Decision, Japan, December

The BoJ stays put as inflation slows and currency pressure eases

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 19 DECEMBER 2023

The BoJ stays put as inflation slows and currency pressure eases

Duncan WrigleyChina+

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 19 December 2023

Malaysian exports tumble on weak electronics

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

20 December 2023 Eurozone Monitor EZ Inflation Will Rise in December; January Key for 2024 Forecasts

• Inflation fell sharply in November; it will rebound in December, but what will happen in January?
•  Our inflation forecasts remain at odds with the ECB’s; we still see a March rate cut.  
• We’re betting that inflation falling below target will prompt the ECB to focus less on wage growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 December 2023 China+ Monitor BoJ Not Shifting Its Policy Stance As Inflation Slows

• The BoJ announced no change to its easy policy settings yesterday.
• Falling U.S. yields have eased pressure on the yen, lessening the urgency of a BoJ policy shift.
• The December flash PMIs indicate falling manufacturing demand, but resilient services activity.

Duncan WrigleyChina+