Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: Balanced, until the mic drop at the end.
In one line: Balanced, until the mic drop at the end.
- In one line: From a “good place” to a stagflationary shock.
In one line: From a “good place” to a stagflationary shock.
- The 1990 oil shock was key to the ensuing recession; the FOMC eventually eased despite 6% inflation.
- The economy is less oil intensive and firms’ balance sheets are more robust now; a recession is unlikely...
- ...But this FOMC has been very responsive to labor market weakness; we still expect easing by year-end.
- Consumption in Colombia remains strong, but weak capex undermines medium-term growth prospects.
- Tight financial conditions and fiscal consolidation will weigh on demand, exposing fragile growth dynamics.
- Higher oil prices offer support, but inflation pressures and policy tightening limit upside for activity.
- Last week’s fuel-price gains in the Philippines and the firmer oil outlook will lead to 4%-plus inflation…
- … A hike is now on the table for April, but it would be rash, given the more forgiving backdrop this time.
- The start of modest fuel-price rises in Thailand will help lift the economy out of outright deflation.
- China is seeking to rehabilitate private firms, as they can support national goals in tech development.
- Private firms have made some gains over the past couple of years, but are still recovering.
- They are bullish on prospects for sale s and consumer prices, but still glum on producer prices.
- EZ governments spent 2.5% of GDP in 2022 and 2023 to offset the hit from rising energy prices.
- Italy and Spain are first out the blocks now, with tax cuts on fuel and electricity to combat higher prices.
- Untargeted fiscal support will make a forceful tightening by the ECB more likely.
- Higher-for-longer energy prices raise our inflation forecast, and we now build in second-round effects.
- We cut our GDP growth forecast another 0.5%—now 0.8% since the war started—partly due to higher rates.
- Market pricing for three hikes is too many, but not wildly too many given upside risk to energy.
In one line: No help to GDP growth from construction in Q1.
- In one line: On hold, stronger emphasis on FX intervention.
In one line: On hold, stronger emphasis on FX intervention.
- IIn one line: BoJ on hold amid oil shock risks and divided inflation views
In one line: BoJ on hold amid oil shock risks and divided inflation views
Malaysian headline export growth in Q1 still up from Q4, despite February miss
Inflation at bay, for now
In one line: The ECB is no longer 'in a good place.'
In one line: The ECB is no longer 'in a good place.'
Japan's exports slow due to holiday calendar effects
Chip and electrical machinery shipments rise
- Higher gas prices look set to reduce real household incomes by roughly $15B a month.
- Tax refunds will boost incomes by about $10B year-over-year in February to April, but taper off thereafter.
- Bigger refunds also will do little to help lower income households hit hardest by higher gas prices.
