Underlying sales volumes holding up...for now.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Holding on to Q1's gains, for now.
Samuel TombsUS
In one line: Investor sentiment continues to rise.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- US - Expect payback for May’s below-trend rise in the CPI over the summer
- EUROZONE - Jumbo cut from SNB incoming; EURUSD rally should peter out
- UK - MPC preview: on hold, but more open to a cut in August
- CHINA+ -China’s productivity opportunity can cushion demographic pressure
- EM ASIA - Malaysian retail sales remain weak, but high debt is no major worry
- LATAM - Mexico’s inflation rises again in May; Banxico to ease cautiously
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Sticky core inflation and electricity-price risks will likely keep BCCh cautious, despite progress on disinflation.
- Gradual CLP appreciation and subdued domestic demand will allow further rate cuts in Q3.
- Colombia’s MTFF signals rising risks amid political urgency; fiscal relief today, higher debt tomorrow.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Singapore’s NODX collapsed into the red in May; momentum was fading, front-running has peaked.
- The extent of the resurgence in oil prices, for now, remains no threat to India’s low-inflation climate…
- …Trade data suggest stockpiling when oil prices were falling, but this activity eased markedly in May.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BoJ left policy rates unchanged in June, while scaling back its tapering of bond-buying next year…
- …Likely due to bond-market volatility, the stalemate in trade negotiations and tensions in the Middle East.
- We expect the Bank to continue pausing its rate-hiking cycle in the near term as Japan’s economy weakens.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Inflation in the EZ will settle at 2.0% over the summer, with the core also hitting 2% by August…
- …This should be enough for a final 25bp ECB rate cut in September, to 1.75%, setting up hikes next year.
- We’re lowering our inflation forecasts for 2026, but we’re still well above the ECB’s June projections.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Official house price inflation will slow in April as stamp-duty disruption feeds through.
- The slowdown will be short-lived, with forward-looking activity indicators improving in May.
- We retain our call for house prices to rise 4.5% year-over-year in 2025.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Led by an overdue correction in oil imports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: No material change—yet—to the outlook for continued fuel & power deflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
China's investment and industrial output data point to slowing growth, despite the bright retail sales reading
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Employment growth eases according to the REC, but the worst of the jobs slowdown appears over.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:GDP falls in April but it will rebound as tax-hike-induced effects fade.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Tariff-front running boost to industry and trade fading in early Q2.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Energy and services pull headline down.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Stable, in line with advance release.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
March pop in Indonesian sales evaporates completely, as expected
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
