Pantheon Publications

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, EZ, February 2025

In one line: Rebounding as expected; will global trade war hurt consumers? 

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, April 2025

In one line:  Plunging, reflecting market rout. 

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade, Germany, February

In one line: German industry likely had a great Q1, but what awaits in Q2? 

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 7 April 2025: China's reserves ex valuation effects fell

China's foreign reserves excluding valuation effects fell
Japan's real wage decline hurts consumption

Global Datanote: Employment, US, March 2025

Healthcare driving payroll growth again; ongoing support will offset some tariff damage.

PM Datanote: US Employment, March

Healthcare driving payroll growth again; ongoing support will offset some tariff damage.

UK Datanote: Bank of England Decision Maker Panel, March 2025

• In one line: Jobs market passes the worst as prices and wages prove persistent.

UK Datanote: UK Final Services and Composite PMI, March 2025

• In one line: Strengthening domestic spending can cushion the tariff blow.

UK Datanote: Construction PMI, March 2025

• In one line: The Construction sector will continue to recover as planning reforms and Government spending boost sentiment.

UK Datanote: UK Car Registrations, March 2025

• In one line: 

  Car registrations will continue to rise despite ‘Liberation Day’ autos tariffs.

EZ Datanote: Construction PMIs, Eurozone, March 2025

In one line:  Up despite being held back by German weakness. 

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Spain, February 2025

In one line: Solid but unlikely to last.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, February 2025

In one line: Not enough to salvage Q1, but the 3m/3m trend is turning up.

Factory Orders, Germany, February 2025

In one line: Growth and the surveys were picking up, before Mr. Trump’s tariff hammer.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 4 April 2025

A brief spell of policy-induced deflation is around the corner in Thailand
Very soft, but March should be the low for Philippine inflation this year

March 2025 - U.K. Housing Watch

THE RUSH TO BEAT STAMP-DUTY CHANGES PEAKS...

• ...BUT HOUSE PRICES SHOULD STILL RISE BY 4% IN 2025

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, March

Weak, but far from definitive.

7 April 2025 US Monitor Payroll growth will slow, but it's too strong for the Fed to ease in May

• The stock price drawdown is historically consistent with a 1% fall in payrolls, but slow gains are more likely.
• Most services firms have little exposure to tariffs; leading indicators of hiring are weak, not on the floor.
• The healthcare sector will remain a jobs juggernaut; falling manufacturing payrolls will drag modestly.

7 April 2025 LatAm Monitor LatAm positioned to capitalise on trade shifts and tariff pressures

• Mr. Trump’s tariff uncertainty will continue to weigh on LatAm’s prospects, despite it not being hit too hard.
• Mexico is aiming for fiscal discipline, but rising debt and optimistic forecasts threaten its credibility, again.
• Structural reforms, a Pemex overhaul and looking beyond the US are key to stabilising its debt outlook.

7 April 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor GDP downgrades and more rate cuts, in the wake of 'Liberation Day'

• The US ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs have led to cuts of 0.1-to-0.7pp to several of our 2025 GDP forecasts…
• …Vietnam’s outperformance has shrunk materially; India won’t enjoy as much of an import-drop offset.
• We now see the SBV restarting cuts to the tune of 50bp, and have added a fourth cut to our RBI view.