Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Easing borrowing costs drive car registrations higher in February.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- February’s rise in Homebase education jobs was small only because January’s fall was relatively mild.
- The broad-based jump in Challenger job cuts shows clear cracks are forming in the labor market.
- Trade data likely miscount a surge in gold imports; revisions will result in a smaller net trade hit to GDP.
Samuel TombsUS
- Mexico’s economy is struggling as tariffs noise fuel uncertainty, weighing on trade, capex and confidence.
- Private consumption and investment are plunging; remittances from the US face growing threats.
- Colombia’s external accounts are seeing lower deficits, robust remittances and an improving outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Vietnam’s first trade deficit since mid-2022 was due partly to Tet noise, masking a spike in US exports…
- …Payback will eventually follow the front-loading of US demand; FDI is feeling the tariff uncertainty.
- The soft February CPI should be all the BSP needs to resume rate cuts at its next meeting in April.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The ECB is playing it safe; trade uncertainty outweighs upside risks from fiscal stimulus, for now.
- April is wide open, but the ECB will pause its easing unless it perceives US tariffs on a sustained basis.
- The ECB has pushed out the point at which inflation hits 2%; it will soon have to abandon the idea entirely.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect GDP to fall 0.1% month-to-month in January, as consumers stayed away from the pub.
- Manufacturing output should also unwind from the sharp increase seen in December.
- We continue to look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q1, but downside risks are building.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
China's steps up fiscal support in a measured fashion; room for further easing
Caixin services activity improves
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Door now wide open for the BSP to resume easing in April
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Another data point in favour of ECB hawks.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The near-3% annualized decline in GDP forecast by the Atlanta Fed’s model is far too downbeat.
- Consumption will recover in February and GDPNow likely is misinterpreting the surge in gold imports.
- The ADP and ISM services employment indicators are both unreliable guides to payrolls.
Samuel TombsUS
- Brazilian Real — Resilience in the face of adversity
- Argentinian Peso — Path to stability, US permitting
- Chilean Peso — Solid domestic drivers
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Premier Li yesterday announced additional stimulus equivalent to 1.7% of GDP, to bolster growth.
- The disappointing funding amount for consumer subsidies can be boosted to offset slowing exports.
- Government land and property inventory purchases should moderately speed up the real estate recovery.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Germany has fired a fiscal bazooka, which won’t go unnoticed by the ECB today.
- Swiss inflation fell further in February, to 0.3%; we think this is a trough, for now.
- We expect the SNB to cut by 25bp later this month, marking the final reduction in this easing cycle.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The catastrophic PMI jobs balance suggests the UK is heading into recession.
- But the PMI exaggerates weakness by measuring the breadth rather than extent of job changes.
- Disinflation is over as the PMI shows firms passing payroll tax hikes and strong wages into prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Korean manufacturing sentiment dented by sagging US and European orders
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Still set for decent spending growth in Q1 overall, but a slowdown looms further ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- US - What do new tariffs mean for consumer prices?
- EUROZONE - ECB hawks have a strong case for arguing this week’s cut is the last
- UK - Retail sales recovering after their pre-Budget stumble
- CHINA+ - Two Sessions preview: staying the course, readying stimulus ammo
- EM ASIA - India’s Q4 GDP bounce confirmed, on consumption and exports
- LATAM - Argentina’s economy rebounding under Mr. Milei’s leadership
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
