Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Consumption still resilient, but a slowdown looms.
- In one line: Boosted by agriculture and capex, but momentum set to fade.
- In one line: Retail softens in April, but growth momentum is holding up.
- In one line: Boosted by investment, which can’t be relied upon post-“Liberation Day”.
In one line: Upturn in money supply continues; Italian GDP on a solid footing in Q1.
In one line: Strong, but remember difference in base effects in the CPI and HICP.
- In one line: Disregard completely; household spending is still weakening.
In one line: Consumption growth will slow in Q2.
The April collapse in Philippine imports in context
- Consumers’ spending is on track for respectable growth in Q2, but a sharper slowdown looms...
- ...As tariff-induced prices increases push up core PCE inflation, weighing on real incomes.
- Tariff-related distortions to the trade and inventories likely will artificially boost Q2 GDP growth.
- A record agricultural harvest fuelled Brazil’s Q1 growth, but momentum is likely to slow.
- Services and capex held up, while industrial output shrank due to restrictive monetary policy.
- The job market’s resilience complicates the COPOM’s position, but conditions will deteriorate soon enough.
- GDP growth in India easily beat expectations in Q1, rising to a one-year high of 7.4%, thanks to capex …
- …But the investment outlook has only darkened since, and all the other Q1 details were weak.
- We have nevertheless raised our downbeat 2025 GDP growth forecast to 6.8%, from 5.8%.
- Tokyo consumer inflation was flat in May, as fresh food inflation cooled but rice inflation soared.
- The new rice-reserve-release plan looks good though, and should lower inflation in the coming months.
- The BoJ is likely to stay put, amid sluggish growth and with little chance of a big upside trade surprise in H2
- We expect GDP to fall 0.1% month-to-month in April, as tariff front-running unwinds.
- We still look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q2, above the MPC’s projection, 0.1%.
- A resilient economy is supporting our call for just one more 25bp cut to Bank Rate this year.
Tariff uncertainty comes for the housing market.
In one line: Still consistent with slight slowdown in growth in Q2.
In one line: Stronger than the increase in goods spending in France.
STRONG MOMENTUM, ELEVATED INFLATION...
- …BACK TO ONLY ONE MORE RATE CUT THIS YEAR
A TENSE MONTH OF EU-US TRADE NEGOTIATIONS LIES AHEAD...
- ...WE STILL SEE UNCERTAINTY WEIGHING ON GROWTH
- We look for a 0.1% uptick in real consumers’ spending in April, and a 0.12% rise in the core PCE deflator.
- Q1 GDP growth probably still is being understated, but the economy was losing momentum nonetheless.
- The court ruling against the Trump tariffs looks unlikely to derail the administration’s trade agenda.
