Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

12 March 2025 Eurozone Monitor Services still doing the heavy lifting for the EZ economy

Services production was up sharply in Q4, thanks to continued strength in IT services.
Surveys remain positive on the outlook for services, and the sector will lead the increase in GDP in Q1.
Our nowcast model is looking ugly, but we reiterate our call for a pick-up in EZ GDP growth, for now.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 March 2025 US Monitor Risks to the February CPI consensus forecast are mostly to the downside

We look for a 0.3% increase in the February core CPI, but the risks are skewed towards a 0.2% print.
Used vehicle prices likely fell sharply; it’s too soon to see a big uplift to goods prices from tariffs on China.
Weakening demand for air travel and hotels likely restrained the increase in overall services prices.

Samuel TombsUS

11 March 2025 LatAm Monitor Disinflation in Mexico and Chile, but their policy paths diverge

Mexico’s inflation is edging higher on base effects, but underlying trends remain favourable for Banxico.
Chile’s disinflation resumed in February after an electricity-tariff shock, but BCCh is likely to stay cautious.
Policy easing will face headwinds from the tariff noise, commodity prices and currency movements.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

11 March 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's US exports accelerate amid all the tariff uncertainty

Taiwan’s export growth really accelerated in February and was almost double consensus…
…Driven by strong growth in exports to the US, with some recovery in demand from China.
Headline inflation eased because of Lunar New Year base effects; food and housing remain stubborn.

Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia

11 March 2025 China+ Monitor China's deflation pressure mounts as CPI falls more than expected

China’s CPI fell more than the market expected, dragged down by weak food and services inflation.
PPI deflation eased slightly; NDRC announced a cut to steel production and measures to curb ‘Nei Juan’.
Japan’s full-time regular base pay growth hit a 32-year high, giving the BoJ confidence to normalise rates.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

11 March 2025 Eurozone Monitor The scene is set in the Eurozone economy, but for what exactly?

The range of economic outcomes in the Eurozone is widening; be ready for whiplash in the surveys.
High-stakes negotiations between the EU and the US in Q2, on tariffs, Ukraine, NATO and Greenland.
Mixed economic data in Germany; is industrial production finally rebounding?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 March 2025 UK Monitor Defence spending will have to rise much more, boosting inflation

Raising UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP will have little effect on growth or the Bank of England.
We expect the government eventually to go further, raising defence spending to at least 3.0% of GDP.
The resulting higher neutral rate means we see Bank Rate at 4.0% by end-2026, up from 3.75% previously.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK