Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- HICP inflation held steady in France in July, but dipped in Germany and Italy.
- The month-to-month changes in HICP prices point to EZ headline inflation staying at 2.0% in July.
- EZ unemployment was unchanged at a record low in June; we still expect a small rise by year-end.
- Our central Bank Rate forecast is hawkish, assuming only one more cut this year and none next year.
- A probability-weighted average of three scenarios is more dovish but still above the market in 2026.
- Continued sharp payroll falls or easing inflation expectations would shift us to more dovish scenarios.
In one line: EZ GDP growth slows from tariff front-running boost in Q1.
In one line: German and Italian GDP both fall by 0.1% q/q; available data now point to 0.1% increase in EZ GDP.
In one line: Solid, but not enough to prevent a poor Q2.
Philippine trade was flattered hugely by base effects in June
In one line: Strong headline, terrible details.
WEAK JOBS PUSHING THE MPC TO AN AUGUST CUT...
BI CUTS IN JULY; NEW BOT CHIEF TO RESTART EASING
- …EARLY Q2 GDP RESULTS ALL SEE UPSIDE SURPRISES
- Markets cut September easing odds to 50% after Mr. Powell spoke, but labor market data will force the issue.
- 3% headline GDP growth mostly reflects the distortions that depressed growth in Q1 unwinding.
- Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024, and looks set to remain relatively weak.
- Two-way trade in the Philippines easily beat the consensus in June, but base effects helped hugely…
- …Still, underlying the inflated headlines are real recoveries in chip exports and capital goods imports.
- Net exports will be the star of the show in next week’s Q2 GDP; we now see the headline at 5.3%.
- H1 went quite well, all things considered, but China still wants to project a strong image to the world.
- China’s new residential sales weakened further in the first four weeks of July.
- The new child-rearing subsidies are a step in the right direction, but small by international standards.
- EZ GDP edged higher in Q2, helped by Portugal, Spain and France; Germany and Italy stumbled.
- We’re slightly more upbeat on investment, but we still see Eurozone exports in goods falling by 1% in H2.
- Inflation in Spain jumped in July, threatening our dovish forecast for the EZ HICP.
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp on August 7 in response to weak payrolls.
- We expect two votes for a 50bp reduction, four for a 25bp cut and three for no change.
- The MPC will likely maintain “gradual and careful” guidance, but may need to mention neutral.
In one line: Near-term inflation expectations are easing.
In one line: Another big increase in Spanish GDP.
- US - The slide in the dollar looks like all pain and no gain
- EUROZONE - White smoke in Scotland: the EU and US strike a trade deal
- UK - Payroll falls should ease as tax hike drag begins to fade
- CHINA+ - BoJ official hints at brightening growth outlook after trade deal
- EM ASIA - Taiwan’s retail sales shrink in Q2; downside risk to our 6.4% GDP call
- LATAM - Brazil’s inflation plateaus as demand softens and disinflation forces build
- Job openings are trending down and people say new jobs are harder to find; expect subpar July payrolls.
- The fall in demand for more labor has been led by non-retail services; tariff certainty won't help much.
- Q2 GDP likely rose at a 3% pace—cue White House bragging—but the trend is likely just half that rate.
- Brazil’s COPOM is likely to keep rates elevated amid sticky inflation, BRL volatility and fiscal uncertainty.
- Non-oil exports surged in Mexico, led by electronics, while the auto sector remains under pressure…
- …Imports signal economic slowdown, as capital goods and consumer demand shrink once again.
- Spanish GDP rose by a whopping 0.7% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, after 0.6% in Q1.
- Growth in the Iberian country will now likely slow, but not as much as we previously thought.
- The Spanish and Belgian data—released yesterday—are still consistent with 0.2% growth in the EZ in Q2.
