Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Retail and industrial data in Colombia point to a broad-based recovery, despite political volatility.
- A stronger COP, easing inflation and resilient job market are fuelling durable goods consumption.
- Mr. Petro’s proposals, tax reform and external risks still cloud the investment outlook heading into 2026.
- Japanese export growth was surprisingly weak, because of a drop in shipments to Taiwan and Canada.
- Japan’s economy has probably entered a technical recession in Q2, likely dragged down by net trade.
- The LDP coalition is at risk of losing its Upper House majority; this will be bond-and yen-negative.
- Headline and core inflation remain on track to support a 25bp ECB rate cut by September.
- The key difference between our and the ECB’s latest forecast is that we see inflation rebounding in Q4.
- The outlook for the ECB is bi-modal; the Bank will stay at 2.0% in 2026 if it holds fire in September.
- Surprise! Payrolls were revised to show jobs falling less than half as much this year as previously thought.
- The payrolls trend is improving, and surveys suggest job falls are ending, while pay growth is proving sticky.
- We reluctantly bring forward our rate-cut call to August, from November, but it’s a ‘one-and-done’.
Services disinflation is partly countering the tariff uplift to goods prices.
In one line: Better external sector performance likely to support Q2 GDP due tomorrow
In one line: Better external sector performance likely to support Q2 GDP due tomorrow.
In one line: BoK hold rates in July, keeping an eye on trade developments and overheating property market in Seoul.
In one line: China’s FX reserves rebounded in June on currency and bond revaluation gains.
In one line : Japanese wage growth is not as weak as it looks, the wage slump was mostly about bonuses.
In one line: China’s services momentum cools amid property drag and post-holiday blues; Caixin composite PMI signals softer Q2 GDP.
In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI rebound on stockpiling activity, but domestic demand softens
In one line: Korea's 20-day exports rebound in June on front loading ahead of reprieve expiry
- Food, a motor fuels base effect and unwinding clothes discounting drove up June CPI inflation to 3.6%.
- We think the inflation surprise represents genuine news rather than noise that will unwind in July.
- We raise our forecasts, now expecting CPI inflation to average 3.6% in H2, up from 3.5% previously.
- The EZ goods trade surplus rose in May, but only because imports fell further than exports.
- Our Nowcast model points to upside risks to our forecast for Q2 growth, but it excludes net trade.
- We will update our Q2 growth forecasts on Friday with the EZ construction data for May.
- Bank Indonesia surprised the thin consensus for a hold yesterday with its fourth 25bp rate reduction…
- …We continue to see an end-2025 rate of 4.75%, especially given BI’s rising anxiety over loan growth.
- Indian net exports were grim in Q2, even with US front-loading, but this won’t be seen year-over-year.
In one line: Tariff front-running no more.
- Brazil —US tariffs rattle the outlook
- Mexico — Tariffs test Ms. Sheinbaum’s resolve
- Chile — Bracing for copper tariffs
- PPI and CPI data collectively point to a 0.28% increase in the June core PCE deflator; tariffs mostly to blame.
- The core PPI was unchanged partly due to a plunge in prices charged for accommodation, which are volatile.
- Announcing a shadow fed Chair is a bigger risk than removing Mr. Powell immediately from his post.
- In one line: Surprise, surprise… at least two more 25bp cuts to come by year-end.
