Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Low claims reflect few layoffs, but hiring is still too weak to absorb fully modest growth in labor supply.
- March business surveys point to Q1 GDP growth of about 2% in Q1...
- ...But the jump in oil prices has triggered a surge in inventory building, supporting demand only briefly.
- The oil-driven inflation shock is delaying easing in Chile, and even raising the probability of tightening.
- The growth outlook has weakened as tighter financial conditions and fiscal restraint bite.
- Policy is on hold for now, but risks have tilted clearly to the hawkish side in Chile and the region as a whole.
- March survey data show clear evidence of weakness from the war in Iran, but markets don’t care.
- Real M1 growth was still robust midway through Q1, but now comes the hit from rising inflation.
- Italian business confidence was resilient in March, but consumer sentiment is plunging.
- Guarded language from the MPC suggests some pushback against market pricing of three hikes in 2026.
- But rate-setters must be wary, given de-anchored inflation expectations and low trust in the central bank.
- The Spring Statement outlines high levels of issuance, which will continue to push up the neutral rate.
- In one line: BCCh Rate Decision, Chile, March, 2026
- In one line: Rates on hold, policy turns cautious after Middle East oil shock.
Energy shock adding to the headwinds for growth and employment.
- In one line: Inflation surprised to the upside, while activity weakened sharply at the start of the year.
- In one line: Inflation surprised to the upside, while activity weakened sharply at the start of the year.
- In one line: Q1 consumption remains firm.
- In one line: Fundamental downward pressure on the THB is building rapidly.
In one line: Services knocked over amid strength in manufacturing.
- The oil futures prices relevant for new capital investment have risen by much less than spot prices.
- Greater capital discipline means oil investment is less responsive to jumps in prices than in the past.
- Either way, oil and gas investment is a very small share of the overall economy.
- Thailand’s customs trade deficit in February was a big miss, but this has been deteriorating for a while.
- The oil-price spike will likely see a current account deficit of -1.5% this year, after +3.1% in 2025.
- The BoT won’t mind if the THB falls further though, as it rightly has been more worried about strength.
- German IFO business sentiment sinks as the energy shock hits, denting hopes of a recovery this year.
- We’re lowering our forecast for German investment, but still see decent growth in Q2 and Q3.
- Fiscal stimulus and the net balance between external demand and inventories are tailwinds for growth.
- Headline inflation was unchanged at 3.0% in February, as a rise in core CPI offset weaker services inflation.
- Services inflation above the MPC’s forecast will leave rate-setters more worried about second-round effects…
- Inflation will trough at 2.8% in April before rising back up to 3.7% in November.
In one line: Consistent with a relatively cautious ECB, for now.
- domestic demand weakened, while manufacturers’ sentiment was resilient
- In one line: In one line: inflation fell in February, ahead of oil price surge
