Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Still struggling for momentum.
- In one line: The money and credit data for November show a solid footing for activity in 2026.
- Tariff revenues fell in December and remain well below levels expected by independent fiscal watchdogs.
- Nearly all of the boost to consumer prices from the tariffs has filtered through; the outlook is benign.
- Home sales are likely to recover in 2026 as mortgage rates fall, but still fall short of pre-pandemic levels.
- US intervention in Venezuela raises regional tensions and reshapes political debate ahead of key elections.
- Rising crime and security issues push voters towards hard-line, market-friendly candidates.
- Chile’s election and upcoming Andean races signal a broader shift in LatAm’s political cycle.
- Singapore ended 2025 strongly, with GDP growth accelerating to 5.7% in Q4, from 4.3% in Q3.
- Manufacturing drove the uptick, led by pharmaceuticals and electronics exports…
- …We think the headline was inflated by tariff-related front-loading that could fade in coming quarters.
- The December RatingDog services PMI points to slowing demand but a marked revival in sentiment.
- Firms are reluctant to hire though, and services inflation pressure is muted.
- China has provided more funds for consumer subsidies, though less than this time last year.
- We look for an upside surprise in this week’s EZ December inflation data, but all eyes are now on Q1.
- Switzerland likely fell into deflation in December, but the SNB remains poised to hold rates steady in Q1.
- We think EZ retail sales beat the consensus in November, but manufacturing likely weakened.
- Strong ISA savings were likely front-running the Budget rather than signalling weak spending.
- Credit flows to businesses and households rose strongly in November, conveying confidence.
- Mortgage approvals ticked down only slightly, and buyer interest should pick up in 2026.
In one line: Dire straits in manufacturing, but big improvement in services.
In one line: Sentiment rose, despite slowing demand
- In one line: Brace for a Q1 spike in headline inflation.
- In one line: Slump in export growth should soon bottom-out.
The H2 surge in ASEAN manufacturing ends on a soft note
Slump in Indonesian export growth should soon bottom-out
Brace for a Q1 spike in headline inflation in Indonesia
- In one line: H2 surge in manufacturing ends on a soft note.
Yet more grim news on the labor market.
Manufacturing is surviving rather than thriving.
Q3's strength is unlikely to be sustained.
In one line: Q3's strength is unlikely to be sustained.
- We look for a modest 75K rise in payrolls and a small fall in the unemployment rate to 4.5% in December.
- Retailers and hospitality firms hired cautiously; consumers continue to report worsening job availability.
- The FOMC still looks likely to pause in January, but the case for easing again will be robust by March.
- India’s punchy November IP print is a big head-fake; cooling manufacturing will hit Q4 GDP growth.
- Thailand’s exports to the US are still soaring, but likely to no real avail for the broader economy…
- …The overall Q4 numbers to date suggest the economy faces a real risk of a technical recession.
