Pantheon Publications

PM Datanote: US Personal Incomes & Spending, June 2025

Core inflation set to climb further as spending barely grows.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, July 2025

In one line: EZ inflation in July was not the dovish slam dunk we were expecting.

PM Datanote: Unemployment rate, Brazil, June, 2025

• In one line: Labour market still strong, but momentum set to fade.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, June 2025

In one line: Holding steady at a record low. 

PM Datanote: Retail Sales and Industrial Production, Chile, June, 2025

• In one line: Retail strength holds; mining hit by temporary setback.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, July 2025

In one line: Downtrend in jobless claims won’t last long.

UK Datanote: Retail Sales, June 2025

• In one line:Retail sales are trending up solidly.

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, May

• In one line: A—slightly—more credible print; consumption, in reality, slowed further in Q2.

UK Datanote: UK GfK Consumers' Confidence Survey, July 2025

• In one line: Consumers’ confidence knocked by inflation and tax hike speculation.

UK Datanote: UK Money & Credit, June 2025

• In one line: Consumers still look set to support GDP growth in H2.

EZ Datanote: Advance inflation, France, July

In one line: No change; we still see the EZ HICP at 1.8% y/y.

Global Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil, July, 2025

• In one line: On hold, signalling caution amid heightened uncertainty.

PM Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil, July, 2025

• In one line: On hold, signalling caution amid heightened uncertainty.

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, June

Going nowhere fast.

PM Datanote: US Advance GDP, Q2

Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024.

Global Datanote: Advance GDP, US, Q2 2025

• In one line: Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024.

Global Datanote: Advance GDP, Mexico, Q2

• In one line: Solid momentum but headwinds lingering.

PM Datanote: Advance GDP, Mexico, Q2, 2025

• In one line: Solid momentum but headwinds lingering.

Global Datanote: Politburo, China, Q2

In one line: China's Q2 Politburo meeting downplays trade risks, focuses on domestic issues like price wars

1 August 2025 US Monitor Consumers' spending to stagnate as real incomes flatline

• The meager growth in consumers’ spending in the first half of this year probably will continue in the second.
• Modest gains in nominal incomes will struggle to keep up with the post-tariff jump in consumer prices.
• We see core PCE inflation hitting 3¼% by year-end, but expect the Fed to prioritize the softening labor market.