Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Mexico’s industrial and services activity fell sharply in July, confirming fragile momentum ahead in H2.
- Retail sales show modest resilience, but tight credit and a weakening job market weigh on consumption.
- US support is stabilising the Argentinian peso for the moment, but structural fragilities still loom.
- India’s flash PMIs only stumbled in September; no big tariff hit or boost from goods and service tax…
- …The complete numbers for Q3 point to GDP growth of 7.4%, posing upside risks to our 7.0% call.
- Malaysian inflation ticked up in August; we see increased upward risks for the rest of the year.
- The EZ composite PMI rose further in September, but the details were weaker than the headline.
- The outlook for services is improving, but new orders in manufacturing warn of a Q4 slowdown in output.
- ECB doves will need a clearer sign of weakness in the PMIs to push their case for a Q4 insurance cut.
- The PMI’s headline activity index fell in September and signals quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.1% in Q3...
- ...But the PMI has been more erratic lately than usual, so we retain our call for growth of 0.2% in Q3.
- Easing price pressures will encourage the MPC, but solid growth will limit emergence of spare capacity.
In one line: Improving, but still subdued.
- In one line: Driven almost exclusively by a V-shaped bounce in coal output.
GDP LIKELY REGAINED SOME MOMENTUM IN Q3...
- ...BUT CONTINUED CAUTIOUS HIRING WILL SPUR FURTHER EASING
- The openings-to-U6 ratio has fallen materially this year, and job switchers are no longer rewarded.
- The NFIB, regional Fed, Indeed and NY Fed consumer surveys all signal slower wage growth ahead.
- The tariffs are chiefly responsible; wage growth has slowed most at businesses on the front line.
- Core services inflation remains sticky in Mexico, keeping Banxico’s easing gradual.
- External drivers support activity, while domestic demand and capex continue to struggle.
- Fiscal prudence and stable MXN provide cover for gradual easing, but trade risks remain elevated.
- Presidents Xi and Trump’s phone call last Friday to talk about trade paved the way for a summit in October.
- Korean 20-day WDA exports fell sharply in September, thanks to weaker demand across most destinations.
- Most Korean goods are still subject to higher tariffs than pre-Trump. We expect the BoK to cut in Q4.
- EURUSD has remained stronger than we anticipated; we are raising our forecasts.
- We still look for near-term weakness in EURUSD, but we’re lifting our forecast for end-2026, to 1.17.
- If EURUSD rises to 1.20-to-1.25 in Q4 this year, ECB rate cuts would come swiftly back on to the agenda.
- The public finances deteriorated in August; borrowing is now drifting well above profile.
- Weak receipts account for most of the fiscal underperformance so far this year.
- We think the Government has to raise £25B to restore the paltry £9.9B of fiscal headroom.
Unemployment fears resurge; discretionary spending likely to remain subdued.
In one line: Positive pick-up in services, but downside risks loom in industrial output.
- Financial conditions have improved for large firms; the bond refinancing headwind has almost gone...
- ...But the option value of waiting for more information is high; the federal policy outlook is uncertain.
- Small businesses still face tight credit conditions; FDI is costlier; and profits are now being squeezed.
- Services and consumption drive growth in Colombia, but weak exports and capex are still limiting.
- Fiscal credibility deteriorates as deficits widen, and the Petro government suspends key safeguards.
- Policy options narrow as inflation expectations rise and political risk builds ahead of the 2026 elections.
- The Philippines’ new anti-corruption drive in public projects is likely to stymie activity in the short run…
- …But needs must, as governance has been eroding, making Manila an even bigger laggard in the region.
- Malaysia's exports moderated in August, though we are still optimistic, considering the PMI data.
- The BoJ held the policy rate steady on Friday, as broadly expected; but two dissenters wanted a hike.
- We expect a 25bp hike in October, though it will be a knife-edge decision amid political and trade risks.
- The Bank said it will offload its ETFs and Japan REITs but at a glacial pace to minimise market impact.
- September’s first business survey from INSEE for France suggests the outlook is still weak.
- We look for a small rise in the Eurozone’s flash PMIs next week, but they will still point to slow growth.
- Other surveys, such as Germany’s IFO BCI and the EC consumer sentiment gauge, likely advanced too.
- A stabilising labour market and sticky underlying inflation support out call for no more rate cuts.
- Hawkish details in the MPC minutes raise the bar to another cut this year.
- Awful public finance data reduce the chance that Chancellor Reeves will soften duty hikes next year.
