Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- S&P 500 earnings expectations often are wrong-footed by big surprises in the economy’s performance.
- The earnings of large companies also have only a loose relationship with broader economic growth.
- The recent upturn in expected EPS mostly reflects booming AI capex and higher commodity prices.
- Core inflation in Argentina remains elevated, as indexation and second-round effects still bite.
- Temporary shocks are fading slowly as fuel, tariffs and food prices are feeding broader inflation dynamics.
- Policy credibility holds, but a high inflation floor implies a slower and less even disinflation path this year.
- We were correct about Singapore’s GDP growth moderating sharply in Q1; it fell to 4.6%…
- …The MAS increased the rate of appreciation for its policy band; it is rightly worried about inflation.
- Malaysian GDP growth cooled in Q1, as widely expected, with services slowing sharply.
- China’s LPRs and de-facto policy rate were unchanged in April, amid pressure on banks’ margins.
- Banks started a new round of deposit-rate cuts, given the liquidity glut in the system from weak loan demand.
- The MoF is offering ultra-long special bonds at record levels, taking advantage of the risk-averse mood.
- We still think the ECB will respond to higher inflation by tightening policy modestly over the summer.
- In the most extreme inflation scenario, the ECB hikes aggressively but also likely cuts next year.
- EZ construction output fell sharply in January and February, but likely rebounded a touch in March.
- PM Starmer is under further pressure following news that Peter Mandelson ‘failed’ security vetting.
- A leadership contest remains a distinct possibility and would likely increase the focus on debt sustainability.
- The war in Iran will likely lead to a small loosening of the fiscal stance, but costly measures will be avoided.
CONSUMPTION TO SLOW IN Q2 AS REAL INCOMES FALL...
- ...FOMC TO WORRY MORE ABOUT JOBS THAN THE CPI IN Q4
Malaysian electronic exports are down, just when commodities perk up
In one line: Now signalling no change in net exports in goods in Q1.
- Zillow’s measure of new rents increased in April by less than 0.10%, for the fourth straight month.
- The recent further rise in the vacancy rate and pickup in multi-family starts implies the glut will continue.
- Rent’s contribution to core CPI inflation will be 0.3pp lower by year-end, overwhelming the energy hit.
- Consumption remains resilient in Brazil, but mostly in essentials; discretionary spending is struggling.
- Rising oil prices increase inflation risk, forcing a slower and more cautious monetary easing path.
- Growth is holding up, but momentum is fading as activity becomes less broad-based and more fragile.
- We think GDP growth in Singapore will slow to 3.0% this year, with risks tilted to the downside.
- Singapore has cemented its role as a financial hub in Asia, which has been helped by policy...
- ...But further expansion could be limited if Hong Kong manages to lure back banks and workers.
- China is expediting fiscal measures to support investment by the end of H1...
- ...Providing flexibility for additional support in H2 if the Iran war drags on and hurts global growth.
- The residential property market is enjoying a ‘little spring’ with rising sale s, but a real recovery is still far off.
- Italy risks breaching the EU’s 3% deficit-to-GDP rule in the event of a prolonged energy shock.
- Spain’s budget stalemate since late 2022 gives it the fiscal firepower to mitigate the hit to its economy.
- Borrowing costs could climb higher still, but policy backstops will keep EZ bond markets relatively calm.
- February GDP exaggerates monthly growth, but stripping out noise the economy was growing solidly.
- Oil prices consistently below $100/bl mean we are close to removing our forecast for an MPC rate hike.
- A payroll fall and wage slowdown in this week’s data will keep the MPC cautious about hiking.
- In one line: Import price growth will jump in the coming months.
- In one line:About half of the February GDP gain was erratic, but that still leaves signs of improving underlying growth as Budget uncertainty eased.
A mediocre end to Q1, but the surveys look promising.
- In one line: Activity remains firm, but growth is clearly slowing.
- In one line: Activity remains firm, but momentum is clearly slowing.
