Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- US - Dire July employment report makes a September easing far more likely
- EUROZONE - Our ECB and SNB rate cut calls now hang in the balance
- UK - Payroll falls should ease as tax hike drag begins to fade
- CHINA+ - China’s Politburo strikes confident tone about trade risks
- EM ASIA - Taiwan’s retail sales shrink in Q2; downside risk to our 6.4% GDP call
- LATAM - Brazil holds rates steady as tariffs cloud growth and inflation outlook
- China’s share of US imports has collapsed to just 7%, from 13%, but looks set to rebound soon.
- Some importers likely have gamed the de minimis exemption, but the loophole will close later this month.
- Services inflation likely will remain contained, despite the further increase in the ISM prices index.
- Chile's non-mining sectors remain robust, helped by strong consumption and improving investment.
- The slump in mining output is weighing on headline growth, but external demand and copper are buffers.
- Fiscal pressures are rising as revenues lag behind target, raising the risk of budget-tightening ahead.
- Indonesia’s Q2 GDP defied expectations, with growth rising to 5.1% on the back of investment…
- …Consumption was stable, unsurprisingly, but our more realistic proxy series shows a Q2 jump.
- The Philippines’ soft July CPI print was no surprise to us, but should mark the low of the current cycle.
- The EZ PMI was revised down, largely due to a downward revision to France’s already-weak index.
- Spain’s and Italy’s composite PMIs are much higher than those of France and Germany.
- French industrial production soared in June, but mainly on the back of a one-off in transport.
- We expect GDP to rise 0.2% month-to-month in June, as retail sales, real estate and autos output rebound.
- Our call points to quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.2% in Q2, above the 0.1% forecast in the MPC’s May MPR.
- We think growth will run close to potential for the rest of 2025, giving the MPC little room for manoeuvre.
In one line: Investors give EU-US trade deal a thumbs down.
In one line: Ugly all round.
In one line: Ugly all round.
In one line: Above consensus; September cut hangs in the balance.
- The average effective tariff rate has risen to 19%, from 16% a month ago; risks tilt towards a further rise.
- Shifting trade flows, margin compression and price rises abroad will temper the boost to consumer prices.
- The DOGE cuts were a small but significant drag on GDP in Q2, and probably will be again in Q3.
- Sticky core inflation and rising wage risk delay further cuts in Colombia, despite headline disinflation.
- Governor Villar flagged the worsening public finances; FM Bonilla offered little clarity on budget plans.
- We expect a shallow easing cycle, with cuts resuming only if inflation risks ease meaningfully.
- Swiss headline inflation rose in July, lifting our profile for the coming months…
- ...But downside risks are mounting, not least as we now see a recession in H2 from higher trade tariffs.
- We still expect the SNB to cut its key policy rate by 25bp in September, to -0.25%.
- We expect CPI inflation to rise to 3.7% in July from 3.6% in June, as motor fuel prices increase.
- We see upside risk to our goods price call after strong BRC Shop Price inflation and flash Eurozone CPI.
- We now expect inflation to peak at 4.0% in September, up from 3.8% previously, as food price inflation rises.
In one line: Above consensus; September cut hangs in the balance.
A further climb in goods inflation is still in the pipeline.
- In one line: A further climb in goods inflation is still in the pipeline.
- In one line: Revisions reveal a sharp slowdown; September easing incoming.
Revisions reveal a sharp slowdown; September easing incoming.
- In one line: Industrial output disappoints again as tariffs loom.
