Pantheon Publications

8 August 2025 US Monitor NY Fed survey suggests consumers are downbeat but not distressed

• This year’s consumer slowdown has little to do with worries about taxes, more with trade and tariffs.
• The recent recovery in sentiment reduces recession risk, but the outlook for spending still is dim. 
• Rising continuing claims reinforce the idea that the labor market has loosened materially. 

8 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Philippines' market-beating Q2 GDP doesn't stand up to scrutiny

• The Philippines’ Q2 GDP beat expectations slightly, with yearly growth ticking up to 5.5% from 5.4%…
• …But this was down largely to a misleading U-turn in net exports, masking a weakening domestically.
• We reiterate our below-consensus 5.3% forecast for 2025, implying a renewed slowdown in H2.

8 August 2025 China+ Monitor China's foreign reserves dip on USD strength and bond losses in July

• China’s FX reserves fell less than the market expected, but still staged the first drop since December.
• The currency-valuation effect was the main downward driver, and the bond-valuation effect to a lesser extent.
• The evolution of China’s FX reserves in H2 hinges critically on the outlook for USD and the Fed.

8 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor German industry in better shape than implied by Q2 data

• Industrial production in Germany plunged in June, or did it? We are not so sure.
• Green shoots in leading indicators for German capex, but an inventory overhang still looms in H2.
• German exports remain stuck in the mud, and US tariffs add further downside risk in H2.

8 August 2025 UK Monitor MPC is cautious; we expect no more rate cuts this year

• The MPC cut by 25bp but was much more hawkish, with a tighter-than-expected 5-to-4 vote in favour.
• The MPC added more cautious guidance, lifted its inflation forecasts and said upside risks had risen.
• So, we maintain our forecast for no more rate cuts this year, which the market moved closer to pricing.

UK Datanote: UK Car Registrations, July 2025

• In one line: Car registrations will bounce back as borrowing costs fall and the market normalises after duty hikes.

UK Datanote: UK Final Services and Composite PMI, July 2025

• In one line: Enough for the MPC to cut, but inflation is proving persistent.

UK Datanote: Construction PMI, July 2025

• In one line: The PMI should gradually improve as borrowing costs fall and the Government spends big.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, June 2025

In one line: A small increase in both June and Q2 overall.

EZ Datanote: Construction PMIs, Eurozone, July 2025

In one line: Where is the light at the end of the tunnel?

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, June 2025

In one line: No boost from Airbus orders?

Global Datanote: Reserve Bank of India Decision, August 2025

• In one line: Holding—understandably—in spite of the tariff let-down.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 August 2025

The RBI holds—understandably—in spite of the tariff let-down
An initial sign that the front-loading of Vietnamese exports to the US is over
A decent start to Q3 for still-depressed Vietnamese retail sales
Transport deflation re-steepens in Vietnam; it's here to stay, for now
June leap in Thai food inflation reverses completely

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, July 2025

Probably a false alarm on services inflation.

7 August 2025 US Monitor Wealth effects are unlikely to give consumption much of a boost

• Swings in home prices have a far bigger dollar-for-dollar wealth effect than movements in stock prices.
• Ongoing weakness in the housing implies a trivial boost to consumption from asset prices in H2 2025.
• Labor-matching efficiency is impeded slightly by high new mortgage rates, but is comparable to the 2010s.

7 August 2025 LatAm Monitor External headwinds and weak growth weigh on LatAm currencies

• Brazilian Real —  Under strain as trade risk rises
• Mexican Peso —  Holding firm amid headwinds
• Colombian Peso — Rally ended by an array of risks

7 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor RBI's hands not tied in October, when we expect one final 25bp cut

• The RBI stood pat this month, commendabl­y in the wake of the tariff outcry; we still see one more cut.
• Vietnamese exports comfortably beat expectations in July, but US front-loading looks finally to be over.
• Taiwan inflation edged up, on higher education and entertainment costs, though this is likely temporary.

7 August 2025 China+ Monitor China's consumer and job-market sentiment near historic lows

• China’s consumer sentiment is near historic lows, weighed down by property- and job-market worries. 
• Employment sentiment is nearly as feeble as at the global financial crisis low point.
• More people expect broad inflation than deflation, which is largely confined to producer prices.

7 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ industry probably had a decent end to Q2; H2 will be tough

• Italian industrial output edged up in June, while German turnover figures point to a rise there too. 
• EZ industry fared well in Q2, a further correction in Irish production permitting. 
• EZ retail sales recorded a decent June and suggest goods spending supported GDP in Q2.

7 August 2025 UK Monitor CPI preview: rising to 3.7% in July, peaking at 4.0% in September

• We expect CPI inflation to rise to 3.7% in July from 3.6% in June, as motor fuels and airfares rise. 
• CPI collected close to school vacations should boost travel prices, while domestic hotel prices likely rose.
• We expect inflation to peak at 4.0% in September and still be at 3.7% in December.