Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- The ECB held fire but clearly hinted at a rate hike in June, unless a miracle happens in the Middle East.
- Inflation in the EZ hit 3.0% in April and is on track for 3.5% in May, with the 2026 average at 3.0%.
- EZ GDP growth slowed in Q1, on the eve of the energy shock, and growth will stay subdued in Q2.
- The MPC’s decision to hold rates, and the vote split, were in line with consensus.
- The MPC’s guidance suggests to us a couple of rate hikes this year, fewer than the market had priced.
- Mr. Bailey’s communication in the press conference jarred with MPC scenarios, so we detail our take.
- In one line: The war has been ‘good’ for the MPC’s policy space.
- In one line: The war has been ‘good’ for the MPC’s policy space.
In one line: Hi-tech and energy-related upstream sectors drive Chinese industrial profit growth higher in Q1
In one line: Japan National CPI firms on core goods and fading energy drag; BoJ likely to delay hike next week.
In one line: Japan manufacturing boosted by precautionary front-loading amid supply shocks while services slow
In one line: Japan exports rebound in March on post-LNY China demand; BoJ hike likely delayed to June after media leak
In one line: Korea exports still strong in early April, led by semiconductors.
In one line: China’s LPR steady in April amid NIM pressure
EARLY Q1 GDP NUMBERS SHOW A GENERAL COOLING
- …BSP AND MAS TIGHTEN IN VIEW OF CPI RISKS
Spending growth probably still slowing, labor market still weak.
- In one line: The oil shock is now feeding through more forcefully into headline inflation.
- In one line: Decent, but positive momentum is fading.
- In one line: Decent, but positive momentum is fading.
- Most Committee members stuck to language implying an easing bias, rather than placate the hawks.
- Powell’s decision to stay on means the President must use Miran’s seat to place Warsh on the FOMC.
- We look for Q1 GDP growth of 1.8%, with consumption mediocre and investment lifted by the AI boom.
- We now see a relatively small rise in Eurozone HICP inflation in April, by 0.1pp, to 2.7%.
- Energy inflation climbed further in the EZ, but the core fell due to a temporary slide in services inflation.
- EC selling price expectations rose across the board in April, and recession probability remained low.
- Household inflation expectations eased—although were still high—in April, according to YouGov.
- But we think the MPC can take limited comfort, because expectations still look de-anchored.
- Consumers are more attentive to inflation now than before 2022, raising risks of second-round effects.
- In one line: BoJ on hold, but Governor Ueda's lack of clear policy signalling leaves JPY exposed
In one line: BoJ on hold, but Governor Ueda's lack of clear policy signalling leaves JPY exposed
