Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

China+ Datanote: Wages, Japan, April

In one line : Japanese inflation continues to outpace labour earnings; BoJ likely to hold rates in June.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

June 2025 - U.K. Housing Watch

IGNORE THE STAMP-DUTY-INDUCED PULLBACK...

  • ...HOUSE PRICES WILL STILL GAIN 4.5% IN 2025

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

10 June 2025 US Monitor Core CPI likely gained momentum in May, but less than widely expected

  • We think the core CPI rose by 0.3% in May, but a 0.2% increase looks more likely than a 0.4%.
  • Indicators point to a moderate step up in the pace of core goods price rises; the surge is coming from June.
  • Discretionary services prices likely were soft again, while the seasonals will pull down other services prices.

Samuel TombsUS

10 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's exports experience yet another month of front-loading

  • Taiwan’s exports surprised in May, rising 38.6%, up from 29.9% in April; the front-loading continues…
  • …This will likely mean the central bank holds back on easing when it meets next week.
  • Thai deflation likely hit a low in May, but the strengthening THB could lead to its return next year.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

10 June 2025 China+ Monitor China's inflation data still soft but with little tariff-war effect so far

  • China’s intensifying producer deflation in May reflects soft energy prices, rather than any direct tariff impact.
  • Lacklustre core consumer inflation is indicative of still- sluggish domestic demand.
  • Policymakers are likely to stick with targeted support, as they gradually implement demand-side reforms.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

10 June 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ wage growth will remain sticky throughout our forecast horizon

  • EZ compensation per employee growth slowed in Q1, in line with easing negotiated wage growth. 
  • Other measures out in the coming days are likely to also show slower wage growth in Q1. 
  • We suspect wage growth will now plateau in the 2.5%-to-3.0% range, remaining historically high.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 June 2025 UK Monitor CPI preview: we still think May inflation will match the MPC's call

  • We expect CPI inflation in May to slow to 3.4%—close to rounding to 3.3%—from 3.5% in April.
  • A correction to Vehicle Excise Duty and airfare falls will be partly offset by strong food and clothes prices.
  • May’s CPI inflation will likely match the MPC’s forecast, and services inflation will slightly exceed it. 

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

China+ Datanote: PPI, China, May

Producer deflation slammed by weakening international energy prices, weather-hit construction activity

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 9 June 2025: China's CPI still in mild deflation

China's CPI still in mild deflation, while producer deflation worsens due to weak global oil prices

Duncan WrigleyChina+

PM Datanote: US JOLTS, April

Rise in openings irreconcilable with other evidence.

Samuel TombsUS

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP/Retail Sales, Eurozone, Q1 2025/April 2025

In one line: Fastest growth in eleven quarters thanks to tariff-front-running-led jump in Irish GDP.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, May

  • In one line: No signs yet of food disinflation stabilising.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

Global Datanote: Reserve Bank of India Decision

  • In one line: Front-loading most of this year’s remaining cuts.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 June 2025

The RBI front-loads most of this year’s remaining cuts
Front-loading of Vietnamese exports to the US continues apace
Latest electricity-price hike nudges Vietnamese inflation up a touch
Vietnamese retail sales are having a torrid Q2
The resurgence in Philippine sales is topping out

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

2 June 2025 Eurozone Monitor All set for EZ inflation at 2.0% and a 25bp ECB rate cut this week

  • A drop in EZ headline inflation to 2.0% in May should be enough to pull a 25bp ECB rate cut over the line.
  • The ECB’s 2026 HICP forecasts likely will determine whether doves get rates cut to 1.75% over summer.
  • German retail sales fell in April, but the upturn in EZ real M1 growth accelerated further.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 June 2025 Eurozone Monitor Irish distortions return; we revise down our Q2 EZ GDP forecast

  • EZ GDP was propelled higher in Q1 on the back of an upwardly revised Irish GDP figure...
  • ...This was, in turn, down to tariff front-running practices, which will almost surely reverse in Q2.
  • We are cutting our forecast for EZ Q2 GDP, but the strength in Q1 means our 2025 call is still up a tad.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 June 2025 US Monitor Mr. Trump is right; the labor market will need substantial Fed easing soon

  • Moderate payroll growth in May offers little reassurance, due to the re-emerging pattern of downward revisions.
  • Hiring intentions indicators point to payroll growth slowing to about 75K in Q3; federal job cuts will continue.
  • The trend of slowing payroll growth will be startling by the FOMC’s September meeting, compelling easing.

Samuel TombsUS

9 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor RBI's surprise front-loading of cuts doesn't mark the finish line

  • The RBI surprised with a larger 50bp cut to the repo rate, to 5.50%, but hardened its stance to “neutral”.
  • We still expect one more 25bp cut, in October, with the MPC underestimating the “space” it has left.
  • Ignore Vietnam’s smaller trade surplus in May; the front-loading of exports to the US continues apace.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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