Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Trade's contribution to Q4 GDP growth probably significant but not enormous.
- Keeping Mr. Trump, Senators and markets all on-side for three months will be no easy task for Mr. Warsh.
- If he is confirmed, the President might need to use Mr. Miran’s seat on the Board, resulting in no dovish shift.
- Mr. Warsh claims monetary policy alone determines inflation; he’s boxed in if it doesn’t fall this year.
- Mexico's Q4 rebound reflects gains in both industry and services, offsetting the hit to agriculture.
- Domestic demand is improving slowly, but weak capex, fiscal constraints and trade uncertainty remain drags.
- Banxico will pause easing as inflation remains sticky, and temporary upside shocks warrant attention.
- Indonesia’s soaring equities sold off sharply last week, threatened with a downgrade to ‘frontier’…
- …Fundamentally, the correction seems harsh, from the standpoint of improving ‘real’ economic activity.
- Thailand’s election at the end of this week still looks set to result in a fragile coalition government.
- Tokyo headline inflation fell 0.5pp to 1.5% in January, but driven mainly by one-off factors.
- Inflation should slow this year, be cause of cooling food prices, despite the recent bout of JPY weakness.
- The BoJ is likely to next hike rates in Q4, providing currency moves are manageable.
- We now look for EZ headline inflation at 1.8% in January, with the core rate unchanged at 2.3%.
- Energy and services inflation fell in Germany but were overpowered by rising goods and food inflation.
- The EZ economy shrugged off tariff whiplash last year, ending 2025 on a high.
- A big jump in the BRC’s shop price index provides a warning of sticky price pressures.
- The lending data for December were more downbeat than November’s, but consumers still seem content.
- We forecast a six-to-three vote for a hold at this week’s MPC meeting, and expect little change to guidance .
In one line: Sentiment improves; selling price expectations edge down.
In one line: Easing M1 growth offset by falling inflation, for now.
In one line: Spanish households tightened their purse strings during the holidays.
Anti-graft drive drags Philippine growth down to weakest in nearly 15 years
POST-BUDGET REBOUND AND STICKY PAY GROWTH...
- …SO THE MPC CAN CUT RATES JUST ONCE THIS YEAR
- In one line: An unexpected—if narrow—jump to a 26-month high.
- In one line: An unexpected—if narrow—jump to a 26-month high.
Sagging Philippine imports—masked by base effects—is the real story
DOVISH INFLATION DATA SET UP A NERVY Q1 FOR THE ECB...
- …BUT THE BAR FOR FURTHER EASING REMAINS HIGH
- Tariff revenues will total $29B in January, $5B below October’s peak and $15B below official forecasts.
- More Canadian and Mexican goods than expected have become USMCA compliant, entering tariff-free.
- Solid inventories and plunging imports seem at odds; measurement issues likely are flattering GDP growth.
- Ongoing disinflation, cooling activity and BRL strength allow Brazil's COPOM to prepare for cautious easing…
- …The guidance has shifted to a calibration of easing, making a March rate cut the clear baseline.
- The BCCh held rates, signalling patience as disinflation outpaces expectations; further easing remains likely.
- The Philippines’ Q4 GDP was grim, with growth plummeting to just 3.0%, from 3.9% in Q3…
- …We’ve yet to see signs of a bottom in investment-related indicators, while consumption remains soft.
- We’ve cut our already-below-consensus GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 4.8%, from 5.0%.
- US allies’ visits to China signal geopolitical hedging, but don’t expect genuine economic integration.
- Beijing appears to be organising these visits to isolate Washington, judging by who initiated the invitations.
- Middle powers are hedging against US unpredictability, but economic fragmentation will lead to higher inflation.
