- In one line: No material change—yet—to the outlook for continued fuel & power deflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
China's investment and industrial output data point to slowing growth, despite the bright retail sales reading
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Employment growth eases according to the REC, but the worst of the jobs slowdown appears over.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:GDP falls in April but it will rebound as tax-hike-induced effects fade.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Tariff-front running boost to industry and trade fading in early Q2.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Energy and services pull headline down.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Stable, in line with advance release.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
March pop in Indonesian sales evaporates completely, as expected
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
More to the uptick in claims than residual seasonality.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The median FOMC member this week probably will envisage easing by just 25bp this year...
- ...But the case for expecting more easing remains robust; signs of labor market weakness are growing.
- The $10pb rise in oil prices will lift the CPI by 0.2%, likely dulling Mr. Trump’s appetite for more tariffs.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Sticky services and volatile food prices cloud Banxico’s outlook, despite weaker domestic demand.
- Disinflation will resume soon, allowing Banxico to proceed with gradual rate cuts.
- Brazil’s economic growth is slowing in Q2, as agriculture normalises and tight financial conditions bite.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The SNB is sure to ease this Thursday, and more analysts have joined us in expecting a sub-zero rate.
- Strength in EURUSD is supported by leading indicators, but the recent rally will fade soon.
- Disinflation in core goods from EURUSD at 1.15 is trivial, despite the ECB’s stringent forecast rules.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Five-year household inflation expectations hit a record high in May, adjusting for a break in the BoE’s survey.
- Inflation expectations have surged more since August 2024 than past behaviour would have signalled.
- Elevated inflation expectations mean the MPC cannot simply ‘look through’ above-target inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- A stronger BRL and improved food supply helped ease headline inflation pressures in Brazil in May.
- Services and regulated prices continue to drive core inflation above the BCB’s 3% target.
- The BCB will hold rates, but fiscal risk and global uncertainty threaten to derail the recent price stability.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Malaysian retail sales moderated in April; we are worried about its failure to reach pre-Covid levels.
- Debt is high, but this shouldn’t risk the outlook for long-term sales, as most of it is secured borrowing.
- Indonesian sales faltered in April; the mini-stimulus won’t help, especially with confidence tanking.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- EZ industrial production fell in April, as goods exports retreated.
- The increase in tariff rates in April hurt exports, but the main hit came from fading tariff front-running.
- The risks to our calls for net trade and GDP in Q2 are to the downside.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
