Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Seasonals still failing to offset new year price rises; February data will reassure the FOMC.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Seasonals still failing to offset new year price rises; February data will reassure the FOMC.
Samuel TombsGlobal
- In one line: Setting the stage for an immediate follow-up rate cut in April; consumer goods output go MIA to close off 2024.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Setting the stage for an immediate follow-up rate cut in April; consumer goods output go MIA to close off 2024.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- PPI and CPI data signal a 0.28% m/m rise in the core PCE deflator and a 0.2pp fall in the inflation rate.
- Inflation likely will be close to 2% by year-end absent more tariffs; labor cost pressures are still easing.
- We look for a sharp fall in manufacturing output in January, driven by adverse weather.
Samuel TombsUS
- Private consumption in Brazil slowed rapidly in Q4, and weakening fundamentals point to a poor H1.
- Falling consumer confidence and worsening PMIs highlight the continued economic struggles.
- Chile’s BCCh faces inflation pressures, amid speculation on potential interest rate hikes soon.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BSP surprised by hitting pause, blaming tariff uncertainty; we still see 100bp in cuts this year.
- Indian inflation dropped closer to the RBI’s 4% target in January; more downside in food is coming.
- We have lowered our 2025 average inflation fore- cast to 3.8%, with core price pressures also cooling.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Swiss inflation fell in January, and has been within the SNB’s target range for 20 straight months.
- The decline, and a further probable fall in February, solidifies the need for another rate cut.
- March’s cut will likely be the last in the current easing cycle, as inflation rises above SNB estimates in H2.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Tax hikes and tariff uncertainty kept UK growth weak at 0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q4.
- But the economy is in better shape than feared, after a consensus-busting 0.4% monthly gain in December.
- Strong consumer services spending suggests rapid real wage growth will help GDP rebound in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Indonesian sales boosted modestly by front-loading before the VAT rate hike
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Under severe strain, and risks are tilted to the downside.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Modest January pressures offer little relief to a challenging inflation outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Modest January pressures offer little relief to a challenging inflation outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
Post-Trump euphoria already starting to fade.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Seasonal adjustment has evolved too slowly to offset greater clustering of annual price rises in January.
- Underlying services inflation continues to fall; leading indicators point to further progress.
- Surges in CPI auto insurance and hospital services prices will not feed through to the core PCE deflator.
Samuel TombsUS
- Brazil — A solid start to the year as sentiment improves
- Mexico — A solid rebound, but threats remain
- Colombia — Economic tailwinds offset political noise
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Sales growth in Indonesia rebounded in December, as consumers brought forward some spending…
- …Ahead of what was ultimately a narrow VAT rate hike; expect an immediate correction in January.
- Overall, headline growth remains historically tepid, and leading indicators are still uninspiring.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s consumer goods trade-in scheme drove RMB300B in retail sales, or 0.2% of GDP, last year.
- The expanded scheme is likely to drive 0.7% of GDP this year, thanks to greater fiscal support.
- The industrial equipment upgrade programme should support 0.8% of GDP, unchanged from last year.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Only around 40% of EU Resilience & Recovery Facility cash has been disbursed to member states.
- Bureaucracy, rising costs and supply-chain issues are holding back the pace of fund absorption.
- A lot needs to be done by August 2026 to mobilise remaining funds; not everyone will get there.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- December’s payrolls fall should be revised up, and we look for a 20K month-to-month drop in January.
- The official unemployment rate likely ticked up to 4.5% in December, and is trending up gradually.
- Private-sector ex-bonus AWE likely rose 0.4% month-to-month in December, keeping the MPC cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
