Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- The tariff shock is fading and Q1 GDP beat consensus, so we raise our 2025 growth forecast to 1.3%.
- Inflation will hover around 3.4% for the rest of 2025, and drop below 3.0% again only next April.
- Easing uncertainty, elevated inflation and growth momentum mean just one more rate cut in 2025.
In one line: EZ inflation expectations jumped on the eve of the tariff shock.
In one line: Falling energy consumption will weigh on spending in Q2.
- In one line:Q2 GDP is shaping up for a solid gain as retail sales roar into the spring, defying rocketing economic uncertainty.
Consumers breathe a sigh of relief, but the labor market still is softening.
- In one line: Uncertainty driven rebound in consumers' confidence points to continued solid retail spending growth.
- In one line: PMI rebounds as uncertainty fades, and drop in price balances helps the MPC.
Equipment investment is set to fall sharply.
- In one line:Borrowing likely overshot the OBR’s projections in April, we still expect tax rises by the end of the year.
- In one line: Manufacturing activity remains weak according to the CBI, it will remain so for some time to come.
- In one line: Inflation eases slightly, but risks persist.
In one line: The gift that keeps on giving to ECB doves.
In one line: Still improving.
In one line: Downtrend continues as unemployment fears near Covid-time peak.
In one line: Boosted by investment and consumption.
Core inflation ticks up after removal of energy subsidies
Core inflation nudges up, after energy subsidies end
- US- Labor market weakness will emerge, but not before July’s FOMC meeting
- UK-Strong growth and inflation mean an August skip
- EZ-Labor market weakness will emerge, but not before July’s FOMC meeting
- CHINA- Growth worries likely to delay the BoJ’s rate normalisation
- EM ASIA- BI’s easing cycle back in play, with 75bp more cuts by end-2025
- LATAM -Strong start to 2025 for Brazil and Colombia masks challenges ahead
- Core capital goods orders fell by almost 2% in real terms in April, the steepest drop in almost four years.
- Surveys of capex intentions still point to further weakness in equipment investment ahead.
- The FOMC minutes will underline the Fed’s plans to wait for more clarity on the impact of tariffs.
- Disinflation has resumed in Brazil, with transportation prices falling and only a modest rise in food prices.
- The strong BRL, falling commodity prices and softening demand signal continued disinflation in H2.
- The fiscal outlook is fragile, despite short-term gains, with rigid spending and political resistance to reform.
