Pantheon Publications

Global Datanote: Official Manufacturing PMI, China, October 2025

In one line: Investment stimulus should lift China's manufacturing index from October's trough

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 31 October 2025: Modest rise in inflation won't shock BoJ

Investment stimulus should lift China's manufacturing index from October's trough
Tokyo inflation bump driven by local water subsidy expiry

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, September 2025

In one line: Flat over Q3 as a whole. 

China+ Datanote: BoJ Decision, Japan, October

In one line: BoJ stands pat amid trade uncertainty and wage caution as Takaichi takes helm

China+ Datanote: BoK Decision, Korea, October

In one line: Bank of Korea hold rates in October as Seoul housing surges

October 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

THE INFLATION OUTLOOK HAS IMPROVED...

• ...WHILE HIRING REMAINS DEPRESSED; MORE EASING AHEAD

Global Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, October 2025

• In one line: Nothing to see here, move along. 

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, October 2025

In one line: Pulled down by food inflation. 

Global Datanote: Advance GDP, Mexico, Q3, 2025

• In one line: A poor Q3, but early Q4 indicators hint at tentative stabilisation.

PM Datanote: Advance GDP, Mexico, Q3, 2025

• In one line: A poor Q3, but early Q4 indicators hint at tentative stabilisation.

EZ Datanote: Advance Q3 GDP, unemployment and ESI, Eurozone

In one line: Nothing here for ECB doves.

EZ Datanote: Q3 GDP, State CPIs & Unemployment, Germany

In one line: Germany avoids recession, just; inflation down fractionally in October.

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Italy, Q3 2025

In one line: Not much of a rebound but faster growth is on the way.

3 November 2025 US Monitor Indicators of consumers' spending are starting to flash amber

• Continuing claims have returned to their rising trend; Homebase and Indeed data are also weakening.
• Bloomberg Second Measure and Redbook data point to retail sales losing momentum last month.
• Airline passenger numbers have picked up, but hotel room occupancy is now 2pp lower than a year ago.

3 November 2025 LatAm Monitor BCCh holds rates as political noise grows; Mexico's GDP falls in Q3

• BCCh’s cautious pause reflects sticky core inflation, fragile job data and sensitivity to election-driven noise.
• …Disinflation, a stable CLP and lower energy tariffs will justify a 25bp cut in December.
• Mexico’s GDP shrank in Q3 as industry weakened further and services plateaued; Q4 will be better.

3 November 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's GDP growth still strong, but we think it's finally peaked

• Taiwan’s GDP growth for Q3 b eat expectations, though it moderated slightly to 7.6% from 8.0%.
• Demand for AI hardware remains solid, but supply-side factors give no indication of strong growth…
• …Still, the AI boom could also be accelerating productivity gains and capital- deepening.

3 November 2025 China+ Monitor China launches investment stimulus to revive depressed demand

• China is countering its investment slump by approving an additional RMB500B in local-government bonds...
• ...And driving though the disbursal of RMB500B in policy-bank funds for investment projects.
• This should boost the official manufacturing index from its October trough.