Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- Japanese consumer spending surged in April, albeit mainly due to tax changes that spurred light truck sales.
- Solid real wage growth is partly cushioning consumers from energy worries, however.
- Governor Ueda hinted on Wednesday at a June rate hike, stressing inflation risks over growth risks.
- A crash in Irish GDP stung EZ growth in Q1, but the trend ex-Ireland was firm before the US-Iran war.
- We see EZ GDP, ex-Ireland, increasing by 0.1% in Q2, before rising a touch quicker in Q3 and Q4, to 0.2%.
- A slowdown in consumption still lies ahead as growth in real incomes takes a hit.
- Activity data softened over the past week, suggesting underlying growth has slowed slightly.
- The DMP will give the MPC comfort that second- round inflation effects are failing to worsening.
- But survey measures of prices and wages continue to signal inflation persisting well above the 2% target.
- The jump in energy prices likely started to lift some core goods prices, but the peak will come in Q3.
- CPI primary rent and OER likely rose only modestly, as the slowdown in new rents feeds through.
- Residual seasonality pollutes the services price data; May data have been consistently soft since 2022.
- Markets favour Keiko Fujimori, but Peru’s run-off will still test confidence in institutional stability…
- …Inflation is heading north, leaving the next administration with less room for policy mistakes.
- Food prices eased in Colombia, but services, rents and utilities keep inflation pressures elevated overall.
- The outbound investment crackdown goes beyond brokers, foreshadowing greater economic control.
- Investors should be aware of the potential implications for assets from such measures in China‘s policy agenda.
- Hong Kong’s PMI partially recovered in May, thanks to Golden Week holiday demand as well as construction.
- Swiss inflation was stable at 0.6% in May; we expect it to stay within the 0-to-2% target band during 2027…
- …The SNB will hold rates this month and throughout 2026. Its next move will be a 25bp hike in Q1 2027.
- Revisions to Irish GDP suggest Eurozone GDP fell slightly in Q1, threatening a technical recession in H1.
- We expect CPI inflation to increase to 3.0% in May, from 2.8% in April.
- Airfares will recover, and last year’s vehicle-duty correction will boost recorded inflation.
- Motor fuel prices have peaked, but utility and food bills will push inflation to a peak of 3.6% in November.
Still no signs of fragility in the bullet train that is Vietnamese trade
Real sales growth continues to track softer in Q2
Small inflation uptick, but still uncomfortably above the SBV's ceiling
In one line: All set for a 25bp rate hike next week.
In one line: All set for a 25bp rate hike next week.
- Oil output has barely budged in response to the jump in prices, with few signs of an upturn ahead.
- Medium-term futures prices have risen by far less than spot prices, and capital discipline is tighter.
- A slowdown in consumers’ spending looms, as the hit to real incomes from higher gas prices starts to bite.
- Brazilian Real — Rally pauses as policy risks rise
- Mexican peso — Strong fundamentals, but risks abound
- Colombian peso — Politics now the market driver
- The underlying strength in Vietnamese exports looks set to persist into the third quarter, at least…
- …But the monthly data at large suggest strongly that GDP growth, in reality, will likely cool in Q2.
- The fuel-price U-turn has yet to show in CPI; we’ve cut our 2026 call to 4.9% but raised 2027 to 3.6%.
- DM central banks are missing their inflation targets; the ECB seems most keen to rectify this.
- A higher inflation target would be no panacea for the ECB, faced with successive supply-side shocks.
- Our interest rate forecast is consistent with a real policy rate at zero by the middle of 2027.
- PMI services responses between the flash and final release were the most optimistic in five months.
- Political noise likely drove revisions, and underlying growth is probably still slowing.
- But the PMI tends to exaggerate growth slowdowns when uncertainty is high.
- In one line: Consumers and firms look solid in April even if some borrowing was front-running rate hikes.
In one line: Korea inflation rise in May makes July hike likely
- In one line: Commodity-price boost to two-way trade is finally here.
- In one line: Food drives the initial bounce-back.
