Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Brazil’s jobless rate remains at historic lows, indicating labour demand is still far above sustainable levels.
- Real wage growth above 5% keeps services inflation sticky and limits room for rapid easing.
- Rising oil prices from Middle East tensions add upside inflation risk, impeding the COPOM’s policy path.
- Taiwanese CPI rose to 1.8% in February, but it’s just Lunar New Year noise; a bigger issue is at hand...
- … A likely increase in fuel prices will hit Q2 inflation, though we still expect no rate hike.
- Tet noise means that Vietnam’s ‘ weak’ February exports should be ignored; the hot CPI less so.
- China’s 15th Five-Year Plan confirms the emphasis on technology and manufacturing to power growth...
- ...We expect continued success on this front, but little progress in rebalancing to consumption and services.
- Services development is hampered by low education; 65-to-70% of workers lack a high-school diploma.
- Domestic demand ex-inventories rose strongly in the EZ in Q4, despite the hit from a revision in Ireland.
- A jump in energy inflation is a risk to consumer confidence and spending in Q1.
- The EZ investment cycle is looking in better shape, despite downside risks to construction in Q1.
- The MPC’s hopes of hitting the inflation target will have to wait another year if commodity prices are sustained.
- So, we expect the MPC to wait until April to ease, and see only one rate cut this year.
- A quick end to the war would bring forward cuts, but a protracted conflict would mean no reductions this year.
- In one line:Sales growth jumps, hiring plans improve, and wage growth remains stubbornly strong.
In one line: Members hold rates, but seem spooked by the Middle East crisis.
- In one line: Spending on big items is failing to recover.
- In one line: Diesel fix still more than safe; shading our 2026 forecast.
In one line: Consistent with likely weakness in Q1, but still too downbeat overall.
- In one line: Members hold rates, but seem spooked by the Middle East crisis.
Don’t read too much into the Lunar New Year noise in Singapore’s January sales
Returning food inflation drives Philippine inflation up higher; BSP target still safe
In one line: Spanish industry stumbled at the start of the year; downside risks loom.
In one line: Stabilising, with mixed leading indicators.
In one line: China's lower growth target signals priority for structural adjustment over short-term growth
- In one line: Growth rebounded in the new year and price pressures remain strong
- In one line: The manufacturing PMI suggests activity is stable, but surging energy prices will hit sentiment.
- In one line: Strong credit flows and falling saving suggest the UK was rebounding strongly in the New Year.
- In one line: The housing market remains stable according to Nationwide, but activity will strengthen over 2026.
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence should recover in 2026 as the fundamentals improve.
