Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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SURPRISE HOLDS FROM THE BOT AND BI WON’T LAST
- …A SERIES OF EARLY-Q3 GDP UPSIDE SHOCKS IN ASEAN
Lower mortgage rates boost sales, but major headwinds remain.
In one line: On the up, but still subdued.
- In one line: Manufacturing activity will manage only small gains in the coming months.
- In one line: Back in contraction.
In one line: Punchy headline, but details remain flaky.
- In one line: Uneven performance, but risks remain tilted to the downside.
- In one line: Uneven performance, but risks remain tilted to the downside.
- In one line: Another month, another surprise… this time for a pause, as the Board adopts wait-and-see.
- In one line: Another month, another surprise… this time for a pause, as the Board adopts wait-and-see.
- Payroll trends have consistently been a good guide to the economy’s momentum in the past.
- Job growth often responds far more quickly at major turning points than contemperaneous GDP.
- The current near-stagnation in job gains is alarming, despite the relatively healthy economic activity data.
- Industry in Mexico remains in contraction, with services sustaining limited but consistent growth.
- Easing headline inflation gives Banxico room to make cautious, data-driven policy rate cuts.
- Fiscal support and lower rates will help cushion growth, but structural headwinds persist into 2026.
- Taiwan retail sales slipped back into contraction in September, as motor sales plunged yet again.
- Strong economic growth contrasts sharply with sluggish wages and weak household spending…
- …Nonetheless, exports should stand out in next week’s Q3 GDP data; we expect an acceleration.
- The BoK held the policy rate yesterday, while signalling its readiness for a rate cut next month...
- ...But only if the KRW stabilises, in turn resting on US-Korea talks, and if the Seoul property market cools.
- China’s Fourth Plenum signalled continued reliance on the manufacturing-export growth model.
- Inflation data clearly suggest the ECB is now on hold, but other data have tilted dovishly recently.
- A delay to the implementation of ETS2 could be exactly what ECB doves need for a rate cut in Q4…
- …But our forecasts still imply that the Bank will need to lift its core inflation outlook, precluding a cut.
- Soft inflation data and the prospect of greater fiscal headroom mean we cut our gilt-yield forecasts.
- We now expect the two-year gilt yield to end the year at 3.80%, and the 10-year at 4.55%.
- All of the good news is priced into yields, increasing the risk of a post-Budget market disappointment.
Cost-push pressures are pushing up Malaysian inflation
- In one line: The trade deficit is trending sideways as gas prices keep import costs elevated.
- In one line:Growth runs close to potential, limiting the emergence of spare capacity.
- In one line:Borrowing overshoot shrinks but the Chancellor still has to raise taxes or cut spending by at least £25B.
